South Ark Daily Picks / About the Model
About the Model
How SE v3.0 turns football statistics into official selections.
From team statistics to game projections
South Ark Daily Picks uses SE v3.0 to project NFL and college football scores from team performance, opponent profiles, and home/away context. Forecasts are generated independently of betting odds and are preserved even when no official selection qualifies.
How an official pick qualifies
Moneyline, spread, and total outcomes are evaluated separately against actual DraftKings markets. We publish no more than one official pick per game, before kickoff, when verified data supports it.
Model Support Score v3.2 combines an outcome estimate (45%), agreement with the forecast (30%), historical reliability (15%), and data quality (10%). An official selection requires at least 75/100 and an estimated probability strictly above 50% for that specific outcome. Expected value does not determine qualification or ranking.
Understanding model support
A support score is not a winning probability. View More identifies whether an outcome estimate is independently validated or provisional. Provisional estimates use the available model evidence but have not passed full independent historical calibration.
Understanding the limits
Football is uncertain, statistical coverage varies, and no selection is guaranteed. Missing statistics, injuries, or player availability are never invented to explain a pick. Each card includes the available supporting evidence and a link to its game analysis.