Arizona State at Texas Tech
Kickoff 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT · Jones AT&T Stadium
Big 12 / Big 12 · Week 7
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT
Arizona State
16.9PROJECTION
Texas Tech
35.2Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Arizona State | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 32.6#54 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 34.8#40 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 27.8#106 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 16.2#22 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 421.4#48 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 406.6#57 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 347.4#64 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 353.6#73 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing yards / game | 256.0#45 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 227.4#74 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 165.4#61 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 179.2#52 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards / play | 6.29#49 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 6.05#62 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.19#57 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.02#47 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion | 29.7%#128 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 44.1%#48 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 37.8%#76 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 39.0%#85 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.60#100 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.60#100 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.00#87 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 2.00#9 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.60#108 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 0.40#41 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 2.00#65 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 2.20#48 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 4.40#103 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.40#64 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
Texas Tech has the higher observed scoring average: Arizona State scores 32.6 points per game and Texas Tech scores 34.8, a 2.2-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Arizona State allows 27.8 points per game, compared with 16.2 for Texas Tech. Texas Tech has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 11.6 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Arizona State's offense produces 421.4 yards per game; Texas Tech's defense has conceded 353.6. The 67.8-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Arizona State averages 6.29 yards per play, which puts it #49 among 138 covered teams.
Texas Tech's offense produces 406.6 yards per game; Arizona State's defense has conceded 347.4. The 59.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Texas Tech averages 6.05 yards per play, which puts it #62 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Arizona State records 29.7%, while Texas Tech records 44.1%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Arizona State records -0.60, while Texas Tech records 0.40. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Arizona State 16.9, Texas Tech 35.2. Texas Tech is projected to win by 18.3 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Texas Tech is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 18.3-point margin and 52.2 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Arizona State statistics · Texas Tech statistics · Big 12 previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401856828. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.