South Ark Daily Picks / Model Performance
Model Performance
Official forward picks, retrospective testing and post-kickoff publications stay separate.
1–0–0official · 100.0% · 29 pending
0–0–0backtest · —% · 0 pending
1–0–0post kickoff · 100.0% · 0 pending
Published selection ledger
Selections, original lines, publication time and model version are fingerprinted in a separate write-once ledger. Grading changes results only. Moneyline prices and ROI remain unavailable unless actual prices and staking records exist.
| Matchup | Locked selection | Publication (CT) | Model | Category | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State Owls | Kennesaw State +3 | 10/7/2026, 6:02:02 PM | SE v1.0 | post_kickoff | win Audit: original_price_unverifiable |
| New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International Panthers | Under 46.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:02:02 PM | SE v1.0 | official | win Audit: original_price_unverifiable |
| Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks | Arkansas +13.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:02:02 PM | SE v1.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats | Over 51.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:02:02 PM | SE v1.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| South Florida Bulls at UTSA Roadrunners | South Florida Bulls +7 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Iowa Hawkeyes at Washington Huskies | Iowa Hawkeyes +3 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Iowa State Cyclones at BYU Cougars | Over 46.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers | Over 48.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| UCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys | UCF Knights +10.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers | Pittsburgh Panthers -4 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Tulane Green Wave at Army Black Knights | Army Black Knights -3 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green Falcons | Sacramento State Hornets +7.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern Wildcats | Ball State Cardinals +36.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators | Over 60.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Miami (OH) RedHawks at Massachusetts Minutemen | Massachusetts Minutemen +2.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irish | Stanford Cardinal +38.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores | Vanderbilt Commodores +10 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks | UCLA Bruins +11.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Houston Cougars at Kansas State Wildcats | Over 55.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | Over 44.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean Green | Over 57.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets | Over 54.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes | Maryland Terrapins +34.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP Miners | Over 49.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels | North Dakota State Bison -3 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering Herd | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +3 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide | Over 51.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | Over 47.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers | Over 50.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun Devils | Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +20.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
| Kansas Jayhawks at Utah Utes | Kansas Jayhawks +15.5 | 10/7/2026, 6:19:48 PM | SE v2.0 | official | pending Audit: publication_snapshot_mismatch, original_price_unverifiable |
Official performance by week and bet type
| Week | W–L–P | Pending | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1–0–0 | 29 | 100.0 |
| Type | W–L–P | Pending | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| under | 1–0–0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| spread | 0–0–0 | 17 | — |
| over | 0–0–0 | 12 | — |
Retrospective chronological validation
Weekly rolling-origin refit; at least 8 hours after scheduled kickoff; Week 4 onward; no betting returns inferred. 116 held-out games; per-team score MAE 11.9, margin MAE 19.6, total MAE 13.4. Winner accuracy 58.6%. Brier score 0.2 on 86 probability estimates.
This is exploratory validation on preserved legacy data, not official betting performance. Historical data availability timestamps are missing; an eight-hour result-availability proxy is used. No weather/injury historical coverage or independently CFBD-reconciled samples yet. No superiority claim or tested betting threshold.
| Probability bin | Sample | Mean predicted | Observed win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–20.0% | 5 | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| 20.0–40.0% | 26 | 33.5% | 50.0% |
| 40.0–60.0% | 24 | 53.1% | 45.8% |
| 60.0–80.0% | 29 | 68.0% | 72.4% |
| 80.0–100.0% | 2 | 87.9% | 100.0% |