Ball State at Bowling Green
Kickoff 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Mid-American / Mid-American · Week 7
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT
Ball State
14.3PROJECTION
Bowling Green
33.1Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Bowling Green -6.5
- Locked line
- -6.5
- Odds / sportsbook
- -118 · DraftKings
- Model edge
- 12.3 points
- Estimated success
- 49.2%
- Confidence
- Model estimate; betting calibration not required by this policy
- Published
- 10/12/2026, 12:27:16 PM CDT
Policy model-edge-3.0 · model SE v3.0. Empirical betting probabilities are not independently validated calibration. Authoritative tracked betting record →
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Ball State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 18.3#125 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 15.8#132 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 39.0#134 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 29.2#114 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 308.0#126 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 275.0#136 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 467.3#133 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 375.3#92 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 190.2#105 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 167.7#125 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 117.8#120 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 107.3#126 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 4.89#125 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 4.77#129 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 6.86#134 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.22#120 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 28.9%#130 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 35.6%#105 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 46.3%#125 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 30.2%#17 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.00#46 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.17#57 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 0.67#118 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.00#87 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.33#90 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | -0.17#76 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.00#124 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 3.00#13 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 4.83#85 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 5.67#49 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
Ball State has the higher observed scoring average: Ball State scores 18.3 points per game and Bowling Green scores 15.8, a 2.5-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Ball State allows 39.0 points per game, compared with 29.2 for Bowling Green. Bowling Green has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 9.8 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Ball State's offense produces 308.0 yards per game; Bowling Green's defense has conceded 375.3. The 67.3-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Ball State averages 4.89 yards per play, which puts it #125 among 138 covered teams.
Bowling Green's offense produces 275.0 yards per game; Ball State's defense has conceded 467.3. The 192.3-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Bowling Green averages 4.77 yards per play, which puts it #129 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Ball State records 28.9%, while Bowling Green records 35.6%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Ball State records -0.33, while Bowling Green records -0.17. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Ball State 14.3, Bowling Green 33.1. Bowling Green is projected to win by 18.8 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Bowling Green -6.5 · DraftKings
Total 45.5 · DraftKings
Observed 10/13/2026, 7:04:42 AM CDT. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Bowling Green is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 18.8-point margin and 47.4 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Ball State statistics · Bowling Green statistics · Mid-American previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401866441. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.