Boise State at Fresno State
Kickoff 10/10/2026, 9:30:00 PM CDT · Valley Children's Stadium
Pac-12 / Pac-12 · Week 6
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT
Boise State
24.2PROJECTION
Fresno State
34.5Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/9/2026, 1:14:19 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/9/2026, 4:09:23 AM CDT. Imported original pregame forecast. No archived pregame statistical comparison exists; current-season totals were not substituted.
Official betting selection
Fresno State +6.5
- Locked line
- 6.5
- Odds / sportsbook
- Unavailable · Bovada
- Model edge
- 16.8 points
- Estimated success
- 61.2%
- Confidence
- Model estimate; betting calibration not required by this policy
- Published
- 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT
Policy model-edge-3.0 · model SE v3.0. Empirical betting probabilities are not independently validated calibration. Authoritative tracked betting record →
Team statistics & league rankings
Archived pregame comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Boise State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Points allowed / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Total yards / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Yards allowed / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Passing yards / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing yards / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Yards / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Yards allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Third-down conversion | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Third-down conversion allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnovers / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Takeaways / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Defensive sacks / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Tackles for loss / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
The stored production forecast is Boise State 24.2, Fresno State 34.5. Fresno State is projected to win by 10.3 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Archived pregame team statistics were not captured for this imported game. Current postgame season averages are not substituted into its historical preview.
Key matchup factors
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Fresno State is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 10.3-point margin and 58.7 combined points. Statistical coverage is limited, so the forecast should not be presented as a fully explained betting edge. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Verified final & model performance
Boise State 38 — Fresno State 31
Source CollegeFootballData.com. The original forecast and official betting terms remain preserved.
- Winner prediction
- Incorrect
- Home margin · actual / model
- -7.0 / +10.3
- Total · actual / model
- 69 / 58.7
- Margin error
- 17.3
- Total error
- 10.3
- Official betting result
- loss
The actual combined score was 69, 10.3 points above the saved projection. The actual home margin was -7.0, compared with +10.3 projected.
Verified postgame Boise State: 238.0 passing yards · 274.0 rushing yards · 0 turnovers. These are game-result observations and do not revise the pregame comparison.
Verified postgame Fresno State: 277.0 passing yards · 69.0 rushing yards · 0 turnovers. These are game-result observations and do not revise the pregame comparison.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Pac-12 previews
Related team matchups
Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401860901. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/9/2026, 1:14:19 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/9/2026, 1:14:19 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.