Buffalo at Ball State
Kickoff 11/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM CST · time unverified · Scheumann Stadium
Mid-American / Mid-American · Week 11
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:19:53 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:19:53 PM CDT
Buffalo
22.8PROJECTION
Ball State
28.2Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:19:53 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Buffalo | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 20.8#115 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 18.3#125 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 26.8#99 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 39.0#134 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 319.8#119 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 308.0#126 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 390.0#105 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 467.3#133 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 163.2#126 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 190.2#105 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 156.7#70 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 117.8#120 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 4.33#137 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 4.89#125 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 6.00#110 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.86#134 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 35.8%#102 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 28.9%#130 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 33.3%#41 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 46.3%#125 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.50#92 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.00#46 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 0.83#106 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.67#118 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.67#116 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | -0.33#90 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.17#119 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.00#124 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 4.33#107 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 4.83#85 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Buffalo has the higher observed scoring average: Buffalo scores 20.8 points per game and Ball State scores 18.3, a 2.5-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Buffalo allows 26.8 points per game, compared with 39.0 for Ball State. Buffalo has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 12.2 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Buffalo's offense produces 319.8 yards per game; Ball State's defense has conceded 467.3. The 147.5-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Buffalo averages 4.33 yards per play, which puts it #137 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Ball State's offense produces 308.0 yards per game; Buffalo's defense has conceded 390.0. The 82.0-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Ball State averages 4.89 yards per play, which puts it #125 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Buffalo records 35.8%, while Ball State records 28.9%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Buffalo records -0.67, while Ball State records -0.33. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Buffalo 22.8, Ball State 28.2. Ball State is projected to win by 5.4 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Ball State is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 5.4-point margin and 50.9 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Buffalo statistics · Ball State statistics · Mid-American previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401866461. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.