Charlotte at Tulsa
Kickoff 11/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM CST · time unverified · Chapman Stadium
American Athletic / American Athletic · Week 12
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT
Charlotte
12.3PROJECTION
Tulsa
40.9Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Charlotte | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 16.0#131 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 27.5#79 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 42.2#137 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 23.3#67 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 287.8#131 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 357.8#98 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 466.8#132 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 418.0#126 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 186.3#111 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 197.0#97 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 101.5#129 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 160.8#65 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 5.14#114 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 5.38#109 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 6.45#124 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 5.45#72 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 26.7%#137 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 28.4%#131 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 44.3%#115 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 41.8%#104 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 2.50#138 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.67#23 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 0.67#118 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 2.33#3 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -1.83#138 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.67#4 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.50#102 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 2.33#41 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 5.33#67 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 4.67#94 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Tulsa has the higher observed scoring average: Charlotte scores 16.0 points per game and Tulsa scores 27.5, a 11.5-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Charlotte allows 42.2 points per game, compared with 23.3 for Tulsa. Tulsa has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 18.8 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Charlotte's offense produces 287.8 yards per game; Tulsa's defense has conceded 418.0. The 130.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Charlotte averages 5.14 yards per play, which puts it #114 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Tulsa's offense produces 357.8 yards per game; Charlotte's defense has conceded 466.8. The 109.0-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Tulsa averages 5.38 yards per play, which puts it #109 among 138 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Charlotte records -1.83, while Tulsa records 1.67. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Charlotte records 26.7%, while Tulsa records 28.4%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Charlotte 12.3, Tulsa 40.9. Tulsa is projected to win by 28.6 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Tulsa is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 28.6-point margin and 53.2 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Charlotte statistics · Tulsa statistics · American Athletic previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401862832. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.