Coastal Carolina at James Madison
Kickoff 11/27/2026, 11:00:00 PM CST · time unverified · Bridgeforth Stadium
Sun Belt / Sun Belt · Week 13
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:21:27 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:21:27 PM CDT
Coastal Carolina
15.7PROJECTION
James Madison
41.7Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:21:27 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Coastal Carolina | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 25.2#93 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 41.8#10 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 24.3#76 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 15.0#16 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 373.3#87 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 452.0#33 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 403.3#116 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 347.0#62 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 224.3#77 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 232.8#65 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 149.0#80 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 219.2#23 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 5.71#82 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.65#27 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 6.21#119 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 4.92#38 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 33.8%#111 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 39.0%#83 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 42.3%#105 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 38.5%#79 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.50#92 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.67#23 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 2.17#8 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.67#24 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | 0.67#29 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.00#12 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 2.17#54 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 2.50#30 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 5.17#77 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.50#30 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
James Madison has the higher observed scoring average: Coastal Carolina scores 25.2 points per game and James Madison scores 41.8, a 16.7-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Coastal Carolina allows 24.3 points per game, compared with 15.0 for James Madison. James Madison has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 9.3 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Coastal Carolina's offense produces 373.3 yards per game; James Madison's defense has conceded 347.0. The 26.3-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Coastal Carolina averages 5.71 yards per play, which puts it #82 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
James Madison's offense produces 452.0 yards per game; Coastal Carolina's defense has conceded 403.3. The 48.7-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. James Madison averages 6.65 yards per play, which puts it #27 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Coastal Carolina records 33.8%, while James Madison records 39.0%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Coastal Carolina records 0.67, while James Madison records 1.00. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Coastal Carolina 15.7, James Madison 41.7. James Madison is projected to win by 26.0 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
James Madison is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 26.0-point margin and 57.4 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Coastal Carolina statistics · James Madison statistics · Sun Belt previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401869947. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.