Georgia Southern at Old Dominion
Kickoff 10/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Sun Belt / Sun Belt · Week 7
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT
Georgia Southern
21.2PROJECTION
Old Dominion
27.6Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Old Dominion +4
- Locked line
- 4.0
- Odds / sportsbook
- -110 · DraftKings
- Model edge
- 10.4 points
- Estimated success
- 41.5%
- Confidence
- Model estimate; betting calibration not required by this policy
- Published
- 10/12/2026, 12:27:16 PM CDT
Policy model-edge-3.0 · model SE v3.0. Empirical betting probabilities are not independently validated calibration. Authoritative tracked betting record →
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Georgia Southern | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 24.7#96 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 18.2#126 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 24.3#76 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 27.5#100 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 395.8#70 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 266.7#137 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 335.8#52 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 324.2#42 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 275.8#23 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 142.5#131 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 120.0#117 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 124.2#111 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 5.91#71 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 4.19#138 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.14#56 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 4.68#23 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 41.2%#69 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 33.3%#112 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 33.3%#41 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 33.0%#40 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.00#46 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 2.17#135 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.17#77 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.83#16 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | 0.17#58 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | -0.33#90 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 2.33#41 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 2.00#65 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 6.00#42 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 7.50#13 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
Georgia Southern has the higher observed scoring average: Georgia Southern scores 24.7 points per game and Old Dominion scores 18.2, a 6.5-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Georgia Southern allows 24.3 points per game, compared with 27.5 for Old Dominion. Georgia Southern has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 3.2 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Georgia Southern's offense produces 395.8 yards per game; Old Dominion's defense has conceded 324.2. The 71.7-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Georgia Southern averages 5.91 yards per play, which puts it #71 among 138 covered teams.
Old Dominion's offense produces 266.7 yards per game; Georgia Southern's defense has conceded 335.8. The 69.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Old Dominion averages 4.19 yards per play, which puts it #138 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Georgia Southern records 41.2%, while Old Dominion records 33.3%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Georgia Southern records 0.17, while Old Dominion records -0.33. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Georgia Southern 21.2, Old Dominion 27.6. Old Dominion is projected to win by 6.4 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Old Dominion +3.5 · FanDuel
Total 47.5 · FanDuel
Observed 10/13/2026, 7:04:42 AM CDT. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Old Dominion is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 6.4-point margin and 48.8 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Georgia Southern statistics · Old Dominion statistics · Sun Belt previews
Related team matchups
Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401869950. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.