Georgia State at James Madison
Kickoff 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT · Bridgeforth Stadium
Sun Belt / Sun Belt · Week 7
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT
Georgia State
22.0PROJECTION
James Madison
35.9Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Georgia State ML
- Locked line
- Unavailable
- Odds / sportsbook
- +380 · BetMGM
- Model edge
- Unavailable points
- Estimated success
- 44.9%
- Confidence
- Low
- Published
- 10/12/2026, 1:55:39 PM CDT
Policy universal-game-selection-1.0 · model SE v3.0. Empirical betting probabilities are not independently validated calibration. Authoritative tracked betting record →
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Georgia State | James Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 39.4#17 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 41.8#10 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 19.0#34 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 15.0#16 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 468.6#19 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 452.0#33 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 301.8#28 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 347.0#62 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 259.0#42 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 232.8#65 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 209.6#29 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 219.2#23 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 6.69#24 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 6.65#27 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.01#44 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 4.92#38 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 50.7%#18 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 39.0%#83 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 26.2%#6 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 38.5%#79 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.60#100 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 0.67#23 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.00#87 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.67#24 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.60#108 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.00#12 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 3.80#2 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 2.50#30 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 7.20#16 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 6.50#30 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
James Madison has the higher observed scoring average: Georgia State scores 39.4 points per game and James Madison scores 41.8, a 2.4-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Georgia State allows 19.0 points per game, compared with 15.0 for James Madison. James Madison has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 4.0 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Georgia State's offense produces 468.6 yards per game; James Madison's defense has conceded 347.0. The 121.6-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Georgia State averages 6.69 yards per play, which puts it #24 among 138 covered teams.
James Madison's offense produces 452.0 yards per game; Georgia State's defense has conceded 301.8. The 150.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. James Madison averages 6.65 yards per play, which puts it #27 among 138 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Georgia State records -0.60, while James Madison records 1.00. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Georgia State records 50.7%, while James Madison records 39.0%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Georgia State 22.0, James Madison 35.9. James Madison is projected to win by 13.9 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
James Madison -11.5 · FanDuel
Total 57.5 · FanDuel
Observed 10/13/2026, 7:04:42 AM CDT. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
James Madison is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 13.9-point margin and 57.9 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Georgia State statistics · James Madison statistics · Sun Belt previews
Related team matchups
Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401869957. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.