Houston at West Virginia
Kickoff 11/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM CST · time unverified · Milan Puskar Stadium
Big 12 / Big 12 · Week 12
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:20:28 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:20:28 PM CDT
Houston
29.8PROJECTION
West Virginia
40.0Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:20:28 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Houston | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 40.0#15 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 36.3#32 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 19.2#37 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 32.7#124 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 481.8#13 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 480.3#14 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 322.3#41 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 460.8#131 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 251.7#51 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 184.8#112 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 230.2#14 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 295.5#4 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 6.82#20 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.25#50 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.40#70 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.93#135 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 62.7%#1 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 50.0%#19 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 35.9%#59 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 35.2%#54 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 0.67#23 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.17#57 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.33#51 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.17#77 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | 0.67#29 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.00#67 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 2.00#65 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 2.17#54 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 5.17#77 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.50#30 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Houston has the higher observed scoring average: Houston scores 40.0 points per game and West Virginia scores 36.3, a 3.7-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Houston allows 19.2 points per game, compared with 32.7 for West Virginia. Houston has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 13.5 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Houston's offense produces 481.8 yards per game; West Virginia's defense has conceded 460.8. The 21.0-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Houston averages 6.82 yards per play, which puts it #20 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
West Virginia's offense produces 480.3 yards per game; Houston's defense has conceded 322.3. The 158.0-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. West Virginia averages 6.25 yards per play, which puts it #50 among 138 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Houston records 0.67, while West Virginia records 0.00. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Houston records 62.7%, while West Virginia records 50.0%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Houston 29.8, West Virginia 40.0. West Virginia is projected to win by 10.2 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
West Virginia is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 10.2-point margin and 69.9 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Houston statistics · West Virginia statistics · Big 12 previews
Related team matchups
Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401856868. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.