Illinois at Northwestern
Kickoff 11/27/2026, 11:00:00 PM CST · time unverified · Ryan Field
Big Ten / Big Ten · Week 13
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:21:27 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:21:27 PM CDT
Illinois
17.7PROJECTION
Northwestern
41.9Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:21:27 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Illinois | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 31.8#56 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 35.4#37 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 27.8#106 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 16.2#22 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 405.5#59 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 437.4#41 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 375.2#91 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 380.6#98 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing yards / game | 254.7#47 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 234.4#64 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 150.8#79 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 203.0#32 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards / play | 6.52#33 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 7.08#11 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.82#98 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 5.29#64 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion | 44.8%#43 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 41.8%#67 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 44.7%#117 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 39.7%#90 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 0.67#23 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.40#6 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Takeaways / game | 0.50#132 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.60#26 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.17#76 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.20#8 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 0.83#131 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.60#97 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 3.67#128 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 4.60#100 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Northwestern has the higher observed scoring average: Illinois scores 31.8 points per game and Northwestern scores 35.4, a 3.6-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Illinois allows 27.8 points per game, compared with 16.2 for Northwestern. Northwestern has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 11.6 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Illinois's offense produces 405.5 yards per game; Northwestern's defense has conceded 380.6. The 24.9-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Illinois averages 6.52 yards per play, which puts it #33 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Northwestern's offense produces 437.4 yards per game; Illinois's defense has conceded 375.2. The 62.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Northwestern averages 7.08 yards per play, which puts it #11 among 138 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Illinois records -0.17, while Northwestern records 1.20. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Illinois records 44.8%, while Northwestern records 41.8%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Illinois 17.7, Northwestern 41.9. Northwestern is projected to win by 24.2 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Northwestern is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 24.2-point margin and 59.5 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Illinois statistics · Northwestern statistics · Big Ten previews
Related team matchups
Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401858537. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.