Kansas at Kansas State
Kickoff 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Big 12 / Big 12 · Week 7
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT
Kansas
23.3PROJECTION
Kansas State
32.3Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Kansas ML
- Locked line
- Unavailable
- Odds / sportsbook
- +170 · BetMGM
- Model edge
- Unavailable points
- Estimated success
- 61.0%
- Confidence
- Low
- Published
- 10/12/2026, 1:55:39 PM CDT
Policy universal-game-selection-1.0 · model SE v3.0. Empirical betting probabilities are not independently validated calibration. Authoritative tracked betting record →
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Kansas | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 33.6#50 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 35.6#36 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 21.8#55 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 19.2#37 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 475.8#15 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 444.0#38 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 304.8#31 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 291.8#23 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing yards / game | 260.8#39 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 228.0#73 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 215.0#25 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 216.0#24 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards / play | 6.65#27 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 6.36#41 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 4.92#38 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.01#44 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion | 40.6%#76 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 61.6%#2 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 30.4%#19 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 36.8%#70 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.60#100 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.00#46 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.00#87 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 0.60#127 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.60#108 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | -0.40#96 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.80#85 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 2.40#36 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 7.20#16 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 7.60#11 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
Kansas State has the higher observed scoring average: Kansas scores 33.6 points per game and Kansas State scores 35.6, a 2.0-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Kansas allows 21.8 points per game, compared with 19.2 for Kansas State. Kansas State has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 2.6 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Kansas's offense produces 475.8 yards per game; Kansas State's defense has conceded 291.8. The 184.0-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Kansas averages 6.65 yards per play, which puts it #27 among 138 covered teams.
Kansas State's offense produces 444.0 yards per game; Kansas's defense has conceded 304.8. The 139.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Kansas State averages 6.36 yards per play, which puts it #41 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Kansas records 40.6%, while Kansas State records 61.6%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Kansas records -0.60, while Kansas State records -0.40. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Kansas 23.3, Kansas State 32.3. Kansas State is projected to win by 9.0 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Kansas State -4.5 · DraftKings
Total 55.5 · DraftKings
Observed 10/13/2026, 7:04:42 AM CDT. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Kansas State is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 9.0-point margin and 55.5 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Kansas statistics · Kansas State statistics · Big 12 previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401856830. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.