Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston
Kickoff 11/21/2026, 1:00:00 PM CST · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Conference USA / Conference USA · Week 12
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT
Middle Tennessee
16.2PROJECTION
Sam Houston
39.1Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Middle Tennessee | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 20.8#115 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 22.8#104 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 28.0#108 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 26.2#95 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 306.6#127 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 375.0#84 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 417.2#125 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 350.6#69 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing yards / game | 182.6#114 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 274.0#24 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 124.0#113 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 101.0#130 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards / play | 5.40#107 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.60#89 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 6.56#127 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.53#82 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion | 26.8%#136 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 41.1%#70 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 39.3%#89 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 30.2%#17 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 0.40#6 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.00#46 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.40#41 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.40#41 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | 1.00#12 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 0.40#41 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 0.40#137 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 2.00#65 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 2.80#138 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.60#54 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Sam Houston has the higher observed scoring average: Middle Tennessee scores 20.8 points per game and Sam Houston scores 22.8, a 2.0-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Middle Tennessee allows 28.0 points per game, compared with 26.2 for Sam Houston. Sam Houston has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 1.8 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Middle Tennessee's offense produces 306.6 yards per game; Sam Houston's defense has conceded 350.6. The 44.0-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Middle Tennessee averages 5.40 yards per play, which puts it #107 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Sam Houston's offense produces 375.0 yards per game; Middle Tennessee's defense has conceded 417.2. The 42.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Sam Houston averages 5.60 yards per play, which puts it #89 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Middle Tennessee records 26.8%, while Sam Houston records 41.1%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Middle Tennessee records 1.00, while Sam Houston records 0.40. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Middle Tennessee 16.2, Sam Houston 39.1. Sam Houston is projected to win by 22.8 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Sam Houston is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 22.8-point margin and 55.3 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Middle Tennessee statistics · Sam Houston statistics · Conference USA previews
Related team matchups
Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401871081. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.