Mississippi State at LSU
Kickoff 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT · Tiger Stadium (LA)
SEC / SEC · Week 7
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT
Mississippi State
19.4PROJECTION
LSU
40.6Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
LSU -12
- Locked line
- -12.0
- Odds / sportsbook
- -110 · BetMGM
- Model edge
- 9.2 points
- Estimated success
- 38.1%
- Confidence
- Model estimate; betting calibration not required by this policy
- Published
- 10/12/2026, 12:27:16 PM CDT
Policy model-edge-3.0 · model SE v3.0. Empirical betting probabilities are not independently validated calibration. Authoritative tracked betting record →
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Mississippi State | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 39.0#20 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 42.0#9 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 28.0#108 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 18.5#32 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 487.0#11 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 524.8#4 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 379.6#96 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 250.8#7 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 309.2#11 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 311.0#8 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 177.8#54 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 213.8#26 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 6.84#18 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 6.47#36 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.49#76 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 4.29#11 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 46.0%#34 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 52.2%#10 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 36.1%#62 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 27.7%#10 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.40#84 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.67#110 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 0.80#116 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.33#51 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.60#108 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | -0.33#90 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 2.60#28 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 3.50#5 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 5.20#72 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 7.00#21 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
LSU has the higher observed scoring average: Mississippi State scores 39.0 points per game and LSU scores 42.0, a 3.0-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Mississippi State allows 28.0 points per game, compared with 18.5 for LSU. LSU has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 9.5 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Mississippi State's offense produces 487.0 yards per game; LSU's defense has conceded 250.8. The 236.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Mississippi State averages 6.84 yards per play, which puts it #18 among 138 covered teams.
LSU's offense produces 524.8 yards per game; Mississippi State's defense has conceded 379.6. The 145.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. LSU averages 6.47 yards per play, which puts it #36 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Mississippi State records 46.0%, while LSU records 52.2%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Mississippi State records -0.60, while LSU records -0.33. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Mississippi State 19.4, LSU 40.6. LSU is projected to win by 21.2 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
LSU -14.0 · DraftKings
Total 58.5 · DraftKings
Observed 10/13/2026, 7:04:42 AM CDT. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
LSU is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 21.2-point margin and 59.9 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Mississippi State statistics · LSU statistics · SEC previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401856720. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.