Mississippi State at Texas
Kickoff 10/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM CDT · time unverified · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
SEC / SEC · Week 9
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:18:58 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:18:58 PM CDT
Mississippi State
20.7PROJECTION
Texas
35.2Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:18:58 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Mississippi State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 39.0#20 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 31.4#59 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 28.0#108 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 16.0#21 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 487.0#11 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 379.2#78 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 379.6#96 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 264.4#13 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing yards / game | 309.2#11 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 237.6#62 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 177.8#54 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 141.6#89 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards / play | 6.84#18 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.43#103 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.49#76 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 4.22#9 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion | 46.0%#34 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 44.6%#44 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 36.1%#62 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 30.9%#23 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.40#84 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.40#84 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Takeaways / game | 0.80#116 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.00#87 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.60#108 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | -0.40#96 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 2.60#28 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 3.60#3 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 5.20#72 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 8.00#9 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Mississippi State has the higher observed scoring average: Mississippi State scores 39.0 points per game and Texas scores 31.4, a 7.6-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Mississippi State allows 28.0 points per game, compared with 16.0 for Texas. Texas has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 12.0 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Mississippi State's offense produces 487.0 yards per game; Texas's defense has conceded 264.4. The 222.6-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Mississippi State averages 6.84 yards per play, which puts it #18 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Texas's offense produces 379.2 yards per game; Mississippi State's defense has conceded 379.6. The 0.4-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Texas averages 5.43 yards per play, which puts it #103 among 138 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Mississippi State records -0.60, while Texas records -0.40. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Mississippi State records 46.0%, while Texas records 44.6%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Mississippi State 20.7, Texas 35.2. Texas is projected to win by 14.5 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Texas is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 14.5-point margin and 55.9 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Mississippi State statistics · Texas statistics · SEC previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401856737. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.