Missouri State at Delaware
Kickoff 10/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT · Delaware Stadium
Conference USA / Conference USA · Week 8
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT
Missouri State
17.1PROJECTION
Delaware
34.5Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Missouri State | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 21.8#111 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 21.4#112 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 32.4#122 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 25.6#87 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 347.2#104 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 359.8#96 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 449.6#130 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 392.6#107 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing yards / game | 209.0#91 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 261.0#38 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 138.2#94 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 98.8#132 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards / play | 5.56#94 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.60#89 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 6.18#118 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.50#78 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion | 31.7%#118 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 29.9%#127 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 47.8%#129 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 37.8%#76 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.20#69 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.40#84 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.20#66 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.20#66 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | 0.00#67 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | -0.20#82 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.20#117 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 3.40#6 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 4.20#112 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 6.20#36 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Missouri State has the higher observed scoring average: Missouri State scores 21.8 points per game and Delaware scores 21.4, a 0.4-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Missouri State allows 32.4 points per game, compared with 25.6 for Delaware. Delaware has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 6.8 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Missouri State's offense produces 347.2 yards per game; Delaware's defense has conceded 392.6. The 45.4-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Missouri State averages 5.56 yards per play, which puts it #94 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Delaware's offense produces 359.8 yards per game; Missouri State's defense has conceded 449.6. The 89.8-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Delaware averages 5.60 yards per play, which puts it #89 among 138 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Missouri State records 0.00, while Delaware records -0.20. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Missouri State records 31.7%, while Delaware records 29.9%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Missouri State 17.1, Delaware 34.5. Delaware is projected to win by 17.3 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Delaware is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 17.3-point margin and 51.6 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Missouri State statistics · Delaware statistics · Conference USA previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401871069. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.