Missouri State at Florida International
Kickoff 11/7/2026, 3:00:00 PM CST · Pitbull Stadium
Conference USA / Conference USA · Week 10
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:19:53 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:19:53 PM CDT
Missouri State
10.4PROJECTION
Florida International
37.2Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:19:53 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Missouri State | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 21.8#111 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 18.8#121 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 32.4#122 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 12.2#6 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 347.2#104 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 378.4#79 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 449.6#130 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 242.6#4 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing yards / game | 209.0#91 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 259.2#41 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 138.2#94 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 119.2#119 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards / play | 5.56#94 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.33#112 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 6.18#118 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 4.03#3 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion | 31.7%#118 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 45.1%#42 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 47.8%#129 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 29.2%#15 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.20#69 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.80#118 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.20#66 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.40#41 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | 0.00#67 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | -0.40#96 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.20#117 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 2.60#28 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 4.20#112 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 6.40#33 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Missouri State has the higher observed scoring average: Missouri State scores 21.8 points per game and Florida International scores 18.8, a 3.0-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Missouri State allows 32.4 points per game, compared with 12.2 for Florida International. Florida International has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 20.2 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Missouri State's offense produces 347.2 yards per game; Florida International's defense has conceded 242.6. The 104.6-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Missouri State averages 5.56 yards per play, which puts it #94 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Florida International's offense produces 378.4 yards per game; Missouri State's defense has conceded 449.6. The 71.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Florida International averages 5.33 yards per play, which puts it #112 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Missouri State records 31.7%, while Florida International records 45.1%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Missouri State records 0.00, while Florida International records -0.40. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Missouri State 10.4, Florida International 37.2. Florida International is projected to win by 26.8 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Florida International is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 26.8-point margin and 47.7 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Missouri State statistics · Florida International statistics · Conference USA previews
Related team matchups
Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401871074. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.