Nevada at Northern Illinois
Kickoff 11/13/2026, 11:00:00 PM CST · time unverified · Huskie Stadium
Mountain West / Mountain West · Week 11
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:20:28 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:20:28 PM CDT
Nevada
21.9PROJECTION
Northern Illinois
24.7Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:20:28 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Nevada | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 27.8#78 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 12.4#138 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 22.0#57 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 34.6#129 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 377.0#82 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 290.8#130 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 338.6#56 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 395.4#112 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing yards / game | 168.2#124 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 204.8#94 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 208.8#30 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 86.0#137 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards / play | 5.76#79 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 4.78#128 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 4.89#34 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.99#108 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion | 35.9%#100 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 31.3%#121 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 31.2%#26 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 62.5%#138 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.80#118 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.40#84 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Takeaways / game | 0.60#127 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.20#66 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -1.20#133 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | -0.20#82 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 2.20#48 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.60#97 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 4.80#92 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 4.40#103 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Nevada has the higher observed scoring average: Nevada scores 27.8 points per game and Northern Illinois scores 12.4, a 15.4-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Nevada allows 22.0 points per game, compared with 34.6 for Northern Illinois. Nevada has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 12.6 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Nevada's offense produces 377.0 yards per game; Northern Illinois's defense has conceded 395.4. The 18.4-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Nevada averages 5.76 yards per play, which puts it #79 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Northern Illinois's offense produces 290.8 yards per game; Nevada's defense has conceded 338.6. The 47.8-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Northern Illinois averages 4.78 yards per play, which puts it #128 among 138 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Nevada records -1.20, while Northern Illinois records -0.20. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Nevada records 35.9%, while Northern Illinois records 31.3%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Nevada 21.9, Northern Illinois 24.7. Northern Illinois is projected to win by 2.9 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Northern Illinois is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 2.9-point margin and 46.6 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Nevada statistics · Northern Illinois statistics · Mountain West previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401864536. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.