Northern Illinois at North Dakota State
Kickoff 11/21/2026, 3:00:00 PM CST · Fargodome
Mountain West / Mountain West · Week 12
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT
Northern Illinois
5.4PROJECTION
North Dakota State
39.4Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Northern Illinois | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 12.4#138 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 29.2#70 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 34.6#129 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 10.3#2 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 290.8#130 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 364.8#94 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 395.4#112 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 239.3#2 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 204.8#94 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 193.0#101 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 86.0#137 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 171.8#57 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 4.78#128 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.67#86 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.99#108 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 4.13#6 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 31.3%#121 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 41.6%#68 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 62.5%#138 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 34.6%#49 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.40#84 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.00#46 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.20#66 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 2.00#9 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.20#82 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.00#12 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.60#97 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 2.00#65 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 4.40#103 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 4.67#94 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
North Dakota State has the higher observed scoring average: Northern Illinois scores 12.4 points per game and North Dakota State scores 29.2, a 16.8-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Northern Illinois allows 34.6 points per game, compared with 10.3 for North Dakota State. North Dakota State has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 24.3 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Northern Illinois's offense produces 290.8 yards per game; North Dakota State's defense has conceded 239.3. The 51.5-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Northern Illinois averages 4.78 yards per play, which puts it #128 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
North Dakota State's offense produces 364.8 yards per game; Northern Illinois's defense has conceded 395.4. The 30.6-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. North Dakota State averages 5.67 yards per play, which puts it #86 among 138 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Northern Illinois records -0.20, while North Dakota State records 1.00. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Northern Illinois records 31.3%, while North Dakota State records 41.6%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Northern Illinois 5.4, North Dakota State 39.4. North Dakota State is projected to win by 34.0 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
North Dakota State is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 34.0-point margin and 44.8 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Northern Illinois statistics · North Dakota State statistics · Mountain West previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401864543. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.