Rutgers at Maryland
Kickoff 10/17/2026, 11:30:00 AM CDT · SECU Stadium
Big Ten / Big Ten · Week 7
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT
Rutgers
25.1PROJECTION
Maryland
31.7Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Rutgers ML
- Locked line
- Unavailable
- Odds / sportsbook
- +198 · FanDuel
- Model edge
- Unavailable points
- Estimated success
- 64.4%
- Confidence
- Low
- Published
- 10/12/2026, 1:55:39 PM CDT
Policy universal-game-selection-1.0 · model SE v3.0. Empirical betting probabilities are not independently validated calibration. Authoritative tracked betting record →
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Rutgers | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 30.0#66 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 28.0#76 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 32.2#120 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 32.7#124 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 396.2#69 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 377.7#81 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 407.4#119 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 354.0#74 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 260.8#39 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 241.7#58 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 135.4#98 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 136.0#97 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 6.06#59 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.51#99 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 6.72#130 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.53#82 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 36.7%#96 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 34.1%#109 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 38.9%#83 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 38.5%#79 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 2.00#131 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.17#57 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.20#66 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.50#31 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.80#122 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 0.33#45 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.60#97 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 2.67#24 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 4.20#112 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.50#57 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
Rutgers has the higher observed scoring average: Rutgers scores 30.0 points per game and Maryland scores 28.0, a 2.0-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Rutgers allows 32.2 points per game, compared with 32.7 for Maryland. Rutgers has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 0.5 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Rutgers's offense produces 396.2 yards per game; Maryland's defense has conceded 354.0. The 42.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Rutgers averages 6.06 yards per play, which puts it #59 among 138 covered teams.
Maryland's offense produces 377.7 yards per game; Rutgers's defense has conceded 407.4. The 29.7-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Maryland averages 5.51 yards per play, which puts it #99 among 138 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Rutgers records -0.80, while Maryland records 0.33. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Rutgers records 36.7%, while Maryland records 34.1%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Rutgers 25.1, Maryland 31.7. Maryland is projected to win by 6.6 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Maryland -5.5 · FanDuel
Total 56.5 · FanDuel
Observed 10/13/2026, 7:04:42 AM CDT. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Maryland is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 6.6-point margin and 56.9 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Rutgers statistics · Maryland statistics · Big Ten previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401858489. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.