SMU at Notre Dame
Kickoff 11/21/2026, 6:30:00 PM CST · Notre Dame Stadium
ACC / FBS Independents · Week 12
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT
SMU
19.5PROJECTION
Notre Dame
40.1Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | SMU | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 34.6#46 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 44.0#4 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 23.0#65 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 11.0#4 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 484.2#12 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 456.7#27 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 312.0#33 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 214.0#1 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 346.0#2 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 261.8#37 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 138.2#94 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 194.8#38 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 7.04#13 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 6.87#16 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 4.95#41 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 4.08#4 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 51.6%#13 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 44.6%#44 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 25.7%#4 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 34.7%#50 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.80#118 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 0.17#1 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.00#87 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 2.33#3 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.80#122 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 2.17#3 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 3.40#6 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 2.50#30 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 9.20#3 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.67#49 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Notre Dame has the higher observed scoring average: SMU scores 34.6 points per game and Notre Dame scores 44.0, a 9.4-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
SMU allows 23.0 points per game, compared with 11.0 for Notre Dame. Notre Dame has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 12.0 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
SMU's offense produces 484.2 yards per game; Notre Dame's defense has conceded 214.0. The 270.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. SMU averages 7.04 yards per play, which puts it #13 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Notre Dame's offense produces 456.7 yards per game; SMU's defense has conceded 312.0. The 144.7-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Notre Dame averages 6.87 yards per play, which puts it #16 among 138 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: SMU records -0.80, while Notre Dame records 2.17. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: SMU records 51.6%, while Notre Dame records 44.6%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is SMU 19.5, Notre Dame 40.1. Notre Dame is projected to win by 20.6 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Notre Dame is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 20.6-point margin and 59.6 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · SMU statistics · Notre Dame statistics · FBS Independents previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401858307. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.