South Florida at Florida Atlantic
Kickoff 11/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM CST · time unverified · FAU Stadium
American Athletic / American Athletic · Week 12
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT
South Florida
17.1PROJECTION
Florida Atlantic
36.7Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | South Florida | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 26.2#88 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 37.2#28 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 17.3#25 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 26.6#98 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 334.8#111 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 420.4#49 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 341.3#59 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 403.6#117 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing yards / game | 182.3#115 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 304.0#13 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 152.5#76 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 116.4#121 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards / play | 5.63#88 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 5.59#91 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.38#67 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.10#112 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion | 42.4%#62 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 50.0%#19 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 37.0%#72 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 36.2%#65 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 0.67#23 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.60#19 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.00#87 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.60#26 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | 0.33#45 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.00#12 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.67#91 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.60#97 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 6.83#24 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 5.40#64 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Florida Atlantic has the higher observed scoring average: South Florida scores 26.2 points per game and Florida Atlantic scores 37.2, a 11.0-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
South Florida allows 17.3 points per game, compared with 26.6 for Florida Atlantic. South Florida has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 9.3 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
South Florida's offense produces 334.8 yards per game; Florida Atlantic's defense has conceded 403.6. The 68.8-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. South Florida averages 5.63 yards per play, which puts it #88 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Florida Atlantic's offense produces 420.4 yards per game; South Florida's defense has conceded 341.3. The 79.1-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Florida Atlantic averages 5.59 yards per play, which puts it #91 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: South Florida records 42.4%, while Florida Atlantic records 50.0%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: South Florida records 0.33, while Florida Atlantic records 1.00. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is South Florida 17.1, Florida Atlantic 36.7. Florida Atlantic is projected to win by 19.6 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Florida Atlantic is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 19.6-point margin and 53.8 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · South Florida statistics · Florida Atlantic statistics · American Athletic previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401862833. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.