Southern Miss at UL Monroe
Kickoff 10/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM CDT · time unverified · Malone Stadium
Sun Belt / Sun Belt · Week 9
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:19:25 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:19:25 PM CDT
Southern Miss
27.0PROJECTION
UL Monroe
32.5Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:19:25 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Southern Miss | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 26.4#87 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 24.0#97 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 34.6#129 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 44.6#138 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 415.6#52 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 364.0#95 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 475.2#135 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 511.8#138 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing yards / game | 271.4#27 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 232.0#68 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 144.2#86 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 132.0#107 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards / play | 5.94#69 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.43#103 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 6.42#123 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 7.19#136 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion | 32.3%#115 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 31.4%#120 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 45.8%#123 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 52.1%#136 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.60#100 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.20#69 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.40#41 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 0.60#127 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.20#82 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | -0.60#108 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 2.00#65 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.00#124 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 5.20#72 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 4.20#112 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Southern Miss has the higher observed scoring average: Southern Miss scores 26.4 points per game and UL Monroe scores 24.0, a 2.4-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Southern Miss allows 34.6 points per game, compared with 44.6 for UL Monroe. Southern Miss has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 10.0 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Southern Miss's offense produces 415.6 yards per game; UL Monroe's defense has conceded 511.8. The 96.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Southern Miss averages 5.94 yards per play, which puts it #69 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
UL Monroe's offense produces 364.0 yards per game; Southern Miss's defense has conceded 475.2. The 111.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. UL Monroe averages 5.43 yards per play, which puts it #103 among 138 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Southern Miss records -0.20, while UL Monroe records -0.60. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Southern Miss records 32.3%, while UL Monroe records 31.4%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Southern Miss 27.0, UL Monroe 32.5. UL Monroe is projected to win by 5.5 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
UL Monroe is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 5.5-point margin and 59.6 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Southern Miss statistics · UL Monroe statistics · Sun Belt previews
Related team matchups
Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401871095. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.