Washington at Purdue
Kickoff 10/16/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT · Ross-Ade Stadium
Big Ten / Big Ten · Week 7
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT
Washington
22.4PROJECTION
Purdue
36.4Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Purdue -3
- Locked line
- -3.0
- Odds / sportsbook
- -115 · DraftKings
- Model edge
- 11.0 points
- Estimated success
- 43.2%
- Confidence
- Model estimate; betting calibration not required by this policy
- Published
- 10/12/2026, 12:27:16 PM CDT
Policy model-edge-3.0 · model SE v3.0. Empirical betting probabilities are not independently validated calibration. Authoritative tracked betting record →
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Washington | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 26.2#88 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 32.2#55 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 22.2#60 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 31.3#119 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 369.8#90 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 415.5#53 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 330.3#48 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 400.7#114 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 279.5#22 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 282.0#19 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 90.3#135 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 133.5#103 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 5.68#85 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.02#65 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.26#62 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.53#126 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 31.3%#121 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 45.3%#38 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 30.7%#21 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 47.9%#130 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 0.67#23 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.67#23 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.50#31 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.83#106 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | 0.83#20 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.17#58 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.67#91 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.17#119 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 5.83#47 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 4.00#117 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
Purdue has the higher observed scoring average: Washington scores 26.2 points per game and Purdue scores 32.2, a 6.0-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Washington allows 22.2 points per game, compared with 31.3 for Purdue. Washington has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 9.2 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Washington's offense produces 369.8 yards per game; Purdue's defense has conceded 400.7. The 30.8-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Washington averages 5.68 yards per play, which puts it #85 among 138 covered teams.
Purdue's offense produces 415.5 yards per game; Washington's defense has conceded 330.3. The 85.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Purdue averages 6.02 yards per play, which puts it #65 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Washington records 31.3%, while Purdue records 45.3%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Washington records 0.83, while Purdue records 0.17. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Washington 22.4, Purdue 36.4. Purdue is projected to win by 14.0 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Purdue -3.5 · FanDuel
Total 51.5 · FanDuel
Observed 10/13/2026, 7:04:42 AM CDT. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Purdue is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 14.0-point margin and 58.8 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Washington statistics · Purdue statistics · Big Ten previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401858493. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.