Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Kickoff 10/18/2026, 3:05:00 PM CDT · SoFi Stadium
Group not verified / Group not verified · Week 6
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT
Arizona Cardinals
20.7PROJECTION
Los Angeles Rams
30.8Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Arizona Cardinals ML
- Locked line
- Unavailable
- Odds / sportsbook
- +590 · FanDuel
- Model edge
- Unavailable points
- Estimated success
- 21.0%
- Confidence
- Low
- Published
- 10/12/2026, 1:49:59 PM CDT
Policy universal-game-selection-1.0 · model SADP-score-ridge-1.0. Empirical betting probabilities are not independently validated calibration. Authoritative tracked betting record →
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within NFL · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Arizona Cardinals | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 21.6#23 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 23.8#13 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 32.4#32 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 24.0#20 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 315.3#25 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 437.5#2 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 379.3#22 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 264.0#1 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Passing yards / game | 204.5#22 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 300.5#4 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 100.5#21 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 126.8#8 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards / play | 4.79#32 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 6.34#6 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 6.57#31 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 4.42#1 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Third-down conversion | 40.5%#13 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 43.1%#10 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 42.1%#21 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 33.3%#7 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.00#10 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 2.00#27 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.75#6 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 0.75#23 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | -0.026#17 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 0.003#11 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| EPA allowed / play | 0.119#30 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | -0.122#3 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Offensive success rate | 45.2%#12 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 46.4%#8 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9%#23 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 39.3%#4 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | 0.75#4 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | -1.25#28 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 2.00#16 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 1.75#21 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Passing EPA / pass play | -0.009#20 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 0.047#16 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | -0.057#16 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | -0.069#18 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Explosive-play rate | 4.2%#32 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 9.8%#12 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | 5.7%#11 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 3.5%#3 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| QB hits / pass play | 16.0%#16 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 17.0%#21 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
Los Angeles Rams has the higher observed scoring average: Arizona Cardinals scores 21.6 points per game and Los Angeles Rams scores 23.8, a 2.2-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Arizona Cardinals allows 32.4 points per game, compared with 24.0 for Los Angeles Rams. Los Angeles Rams has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 8.4 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Arizona Cardinals's offense produces 315.3 yards per game; Los Angeles Rams's defense has conceded 264.0. The 51.3-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Arizona Cardinals averages 4.79 yards per play, which puts it #32 among 32 covered teams.
Los Angeles Rams's offense produces 437.5 yards per game; Arizona Cardinals's defense has conceded 379.3. The 58.3-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Los Angeles Rams averages 6.34 yards per play, which puts it #6 among 32 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Arizona Cardinals records 0.75, while Los Angeles Rams records -1.25. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Explosive-play rate is another measurable difference: Arizona Cardinals records 4.2%, while Los Angeles Rams records 9.8%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Arizona Cardinals 20.7, Los Angeles Rams 30.8. Los Angeles Rams is projected to win by 10.1 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The NFL model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Los Angeles Rams -13.5 · DraftKings
Total 52.5 · DraftKings
Observed 10/13/2026, 7:04:42 AM CDT. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Los Angeles Rams is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 10.1-point margin and 51.5 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID nfl:2026_06_ARI_LA. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.