Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Kickoff 12/25/2026, 3:30:00 PM CST · Empower Field at Mile High
Group not verified / Group not verified · Week 16
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:21:55 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:21:55 PM CDT
Buffalo Bills
25.2PROJECTION
Denver Broncos
23.0Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:21:55 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within NFL · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Buffalo Bills | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 32.8#1 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 19.4#26 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 28.2#28 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 22.2#13 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 411.3#8 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 291.8#31 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 407.8#29 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 401.0#27 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Passing yards / game | 259.8#9 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 204.8#21 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 139.0#5 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 81.3#29 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards / play | 6.85#2 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 5.01#28 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.97#19 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 5.96#18 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Third-down conversion | 53.3%#1 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 33.8%#27 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 40.7%#18 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 45.2%#26 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.75#25 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 1.25#13 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.25#13 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 1.00#18 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | 0.162#3 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | -0.077#24 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| EPA allowed / play | 0.105#29 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | -0.035#14 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive success rate | 46.7%#6 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 39.3%#27 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Success rate allowed | 48.0%#30 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 40.1%#6 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.50#21 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | -0.25#18 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 2.50#8 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 2.00#16 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Passing EPA / pass play | 0.207#5 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | -0.052#23 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | 0.110#1 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | -0.113#22 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Explosive-play rate | 15.0%#1 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 6.6%#28 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | 6.9%#19 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 3.5%#3 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| QB hits / pass play | 16.2%#17 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 9.4%#1 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Buffalo Bills has the higher observed scoring average: Buffalo Bills scores 32.8 points per game and Denver Broncos scores 19.4, a 13.4-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Buffalo Bills allows 28.2 points per game, compared with 22.2 for Denver Broncos. Denver Broncos has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 6.0 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Buffalo Bills's offense produces 411.3 yards per game; Denver Broncos's defense has conceded 401.0. The 10.3-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Buffalo Bills averages 6.85 yards per play, which puts it #2 among 32 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Denver Broncos's offense produces 291.8 yards per game; Buffalo Bills's defense has conceded 407.8. The 116.0-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Denver Broncos averages 5.01 yards per play, which puts it #28 among 32 covered teams.
Explosive-play rate is another measurable difference: Buffalo Bills records 15.0%, while Denver Broncos records 6.6%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Buffalo Bills records 53.3%, while Denver Broncos records 33.8%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Buffalo Bills 25.2, Denver Broncos 23.0. Buffalo Bills is projected to win by 2.1 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The NFL model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Buffalo Bills is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 2.1-point margin and 48.2 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID nfl:2026_16_BUF_DEN. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.