Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Kickoff 10/18/2026, 7:20:00 PM CDT · Lambeau Field
Group not verified / Group not verified · Week 6
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT
Dallas Cowboys
24.4PROJECTION
Green Bay Packers
24.2Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Under 53
- Locked line
- 53.0
- Odds / sportsbook
- -107 · LowVig.ag
- Model edge
- 4.4 points
- Estimated success
- 62.3%
- Confidence
- Low
- Published
- 10/12/2026, 1:49:59 PM CDT
Policy universal-game-selection-1.0 · model SADP-score-ridge-1.0. Empirical betting probabilities are not independently validated calibration. Authoritative tracked betting record →
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within NFL · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Dallas Cowboys | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 27.6#7 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 20.8#24 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 27.2#25 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 22.4#14 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 364.4#15 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 329.3#22 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 405.0#28 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 355.3#16 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Passing yards / game | 276.2#7 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 260.3#8 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 81.6#28 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 58.0#32 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards / play | 5.93#14 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 5.60#21 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 6.53#30 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 5.42#7 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Third-down conversion | 49.2%#4 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 27.6%#32 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 52.6%#32 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 44.3%#25 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.00#10 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 1.50#22 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Takeaways / game | 0.40#32 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 1.00#18 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | 0.127#7 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | -0.030#19 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| EPA allowed / play | 0.180#32 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | -0.038#12 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive success rate | 47.9%#4 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 40.3%#25 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Success rate allowed | 51.0%#32 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 43.3%#19 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.60#24 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | -0.50#21 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.00#28 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 2.50#8 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Passing EPA / pass play | 0.202#7 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 0.110#11 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | -0.013#11 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | -0.306#32 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Explosive-play rate | 7.5%#26 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 9.2%#16 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | 3.0%#2 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 5.1%#9 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| QB hits / pass play | 15.0%#11 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 18.9%#28 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
Dallas Cowboys has the higher observed scoring average: Dallas Cowboys scores 27.6 points per game and Green Bay Packers scores 20.8, a 6.8-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Dallas Cowboys allows 27.2 points per game, compared with 22.4 for Green Bay Packers. Green Bay Packers has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 4.8 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Dallas Cowboys's offense produces 364.4 yards per game; Green Bay Packers's defense has conceded 355.3. The 9.1-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Dallas Cowboys averages 5.93 yards per play, which puts it #14 among 32 covered teams.
Green Bay Packers's offense produces 329.3 yards per game; Dallas Cowboys's defense has conceded 405.0. The 75.8-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Green Bay Packers averages 5.60 yards per play, which puts it #21 among 32 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Dallas Cowboys records 49.2%, while Green Bay Packers records 27.6%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Offensive success rate is another measurable difference: Dallas Cowboys records 47.9%, while Green Bay Packers records 40.3%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Dallas Cowboys 24.4, Green Bay Packers 24.2. Dallas Cowboys is projected to win by 0.2 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The NFL model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Green Bay Packers -1.5 · DraftKings
Total 52.5 · DraftKings
Observed 10/13/2026, 7:04:42 AM CDT. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Dallas Cowboys is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 0.2-point margin and 48.6 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record
Related team matchups
Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID nfl:2026_06_DAL_GB. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.