Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Kickoff 10/18/2026, 3:25:00 PM CDT · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Group not verified / Group not verified · Week 6
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT
Los Angeles Chargers
15.0PROJECTION
Kansas City Chiefs
22.4Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Under 42.5
- Locked line
- 42.5
- Odds / sportsbook
- -112 · DraftKings
- Model edge
- 5.0 points
- Estimated success
- 65.5%
- Confidence
- Model estimate; betting calibration not required by this policy
- Published
- 10/12/2026, 12:27:16 PM CDT
Policy model-edge-3.0 · model SADP-score-ridge-1.0. Empirical betting probabilities are not independently validated calibration. Authoritative tracked betting record →
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within NFL · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Los Angeles Chargers | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 16.8#30 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 29.5#5 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Points allowed / game | 25.8#22 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 19.3#7 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Total yards / game | 344.3#18 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 431.0#4 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 361.0#19 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 325.8#7 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Passing yards / game | 204.0#23 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 259.3#10 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 121.5#10 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 162.3#3 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards / play | 5.62#18 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 6.81#4 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.71#14 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 5.09#4 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Third-down conversion | 34.8%#26 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 44.0%#8 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 31.3%#5 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 37.0%#11 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Turnovers / game | 2.50#31 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 0.50#3 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.75#6 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 1.75#6 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | -0.207#32 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 0.152#4 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| EPA allowed / play | -0.086#5 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | -0.049#9 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Offensive success rate | 37.7%#29 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 47.8%#5 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6%#7 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 41.0%#8 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.75#25 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 1.25#2 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 2.50#8 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 0.75#31 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Passing EPA / pass play | -0.231#32 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 0.191#8 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | -0.180#29 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 0.107#2 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Explosive-play rate | 9.1%#17 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 11.9%#4 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | 10.6%#31 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 4.4%#6 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| QB hits / pass play | 22.4%#32 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 15.6%#15 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
Kansas City Chiefs has the higher observed scoring average: Los Angeles Chargers scores 16.8 points per game and Kansas City Chiefs scores 29.5, a 12.7-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Los Angeles Chargers allows 25.8 points per game, compared with 19.3 for Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City Chiefs has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 6.6 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Los Angeles Chargers's offense produces 344.3 yards per game; Kansas City Chiefs's defense has conceded 325.8. The 18.5-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Los Angeles Chargers averages 5.62 yards per play, which puts it #18 among 32 covered teams.
Kansas City Chiefs's offense produces 431.0 yards per game; Los Angeles Chargers's defense has conceded 361.0. The 70.0-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Kansas City Chiefs averages 6.81 yards per play, which puts it #4 among 32 covered teams.
Offensive EPA / play is another measurable difference: Los Angeles Chargers records -0.207, while Kansas City Chiefs records 0.152. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Offensive success rate is another measurable difference: Los Angeles Chargers records 37.7%, while Kansas City Chiefs records 47.8%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Los Angeles Chargers 15.0, Kansas City Chiefs 22.4. Kansas City Chiefs is projected to win by 7.4 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The NFL model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 · DraftKings
Total 42.5 · DraftKings
Observed 10/13/2026, 7:04:42 AM CDT. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Kansas City Chiefs is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 7.4-point margin and 37.5 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record
Related team matchups
Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID nfl:2026_06_LAC_KC. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.