Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Kickoff 11/15/2026, 12:00:00 PM CST · Lucas Oil Stadium
Group not verified / Group not verified · Week 10
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:20:28 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:20:28 PM CDT
Miami Dolphins
20.2PROJECTION
Indianapolis Colts
24.1Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:20:28 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within NFL · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Miami Dolphins | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 14.0#31 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 24.8#11 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 26.4#24 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 27.6#27 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 296.5#30 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 311.8#26 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 352.5#13 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 422.3#31 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Passing yards / game | 178.0#31 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 188.5#27 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 104.0#19 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 109.5#15 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards / play | 5.65#17 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 4.93#31 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.95#17 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 6.65#32 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Third-down conversion | 41.3%#12 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 35.3%#25 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 51.7%#31 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 30.5%#4 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.25#13 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 2.00#27 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Takeaways / game | 0.75#23 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 0.50#29 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | -0.116#28 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | -0.051#21 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| EPA allowed / play | 0.074#26 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 0.085#28 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive success rate | 37.5%#30 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 41.9%#17 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Success rate allowed | 47.0%#29 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 43.8%#21 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.50#21 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | -1.50#32 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.00#28 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 2.25#13 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Passing EPA / pass play | -0.225#31 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | -0.161#28 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | 0.005#9 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 0.097#3 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Explosive-play rate | 11.6%#5 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 9.3%#15 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | 9.7%#28 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 4.9%#8 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| QB hits / pass play | 14.5%#7 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 14.6%#8 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Indianapolis Colts has the higher observed scoring average: Miami Dolphins scores 14.0 points per game and Indianapolis Colts scores 24.8, a 10.8-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Miami Dolphins allows 26.4 points per game, compared with 27.6 for Indianapolis Colts. Miami Dolphins has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 1.2 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Miami Dolphins's offense produces 296.5 yards per game; Indianapolis Colts's defense has conceded 422.3. The 125.8-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Miami Dolphins averages 5.65 yards per play, which puts it #17 among 32 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Indianapolis Colts's offense produces 311.8 yards per game; Miami Dolphins's defense has conceded 352.5. The 40.8-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Indianapolis Colts averages 4.93 yards per play, which puts it #31 among 32 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Miami Dolphins records 41.3%, while Indianapolis Colts records 35.3%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Offensive success rate is another measurable difference: Miami Dolphins records 37.5%, while Indianapolis Colts records 41.9%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Miami Dolphins 20.2, Indianapolis Colts 24.1. Indianapolis Colts is projected to win by 3.9 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The NFL model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Indianapolis Colts is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 3.9-point margin and 44.3 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
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Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID nfl:2026_10_MIA_IND. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.