New York Jets at New England Patriots
Kickoff 10/18/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT · Gillette Stadium
Group not verified / Group not verified · Week 6
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT
New York Jets
14.9PROJECTION
New England Patriots
25.7Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
New England Patriots -7
- Locked line
- -7.0
- Odds / sportsbook
- -104 · LowVig.ag
- Model edge
- 3.8 points
- Estimated success
- 59.2%
- Confidence
- Low
- Published
- 10/12/2026, 1:49:59 PM CDT
Policy universal-game-selection-1.0 · model SADP-score-ridge-1.0. Empirical betting probabilities are not independently validated calibration. Authoritative tracked betting record →
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within NFL · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | New York Jets | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 18.6#27 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 22.0#19 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 19.2#5 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 18.8#4 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 333.0#21 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 354.0#17 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 341.3#11 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 325.3#6 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Passing yards / game | 225.5#17 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 225.0#18 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 84.0#27 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 117.8#11 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards / play | 5.79#16 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 5.57#23 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.42#7 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 5.66#12 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Third-down conversion | 35.8%#23 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 37.5%#19 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 33.9%#9 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 38.3%#13 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 0.25#1 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 2.50#31 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.00#18 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 1.25#13 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | -0.044#20 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 0.045#10 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| EPA allowed / play | -0.077#6 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | -0.009#17 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive success rate | 41.9%#17 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 44.4%#13 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5%#20 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 41.8%#13 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | 0.75#4 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | -1.25#28 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 2.25#13 of 32 covered teams · 4 games | 2.00#16 of 32 covered teams · 4 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Passing EPA / pass play | 0.037#17 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 0.099#12 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | -0.146#25 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | -0.015#12 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Explosive-play rate | 9.1%#17 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 11.3%#6 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | 9.7%#28 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 6.5%#17 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| QB hits / pass play | 18.2%#25 of 32 covered teams · 5 games | 14.8%#9 of 32 covered teams · 5 games |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
New England Patriots has the higher observed scoring average: New York Jets scores 18.6 points per game and New England Patriots scores 22.0, a 3.4-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
New York Jets allows 19.2 points per game, compared with 18.8 for New England Patriots. New England Patriots has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 0.4 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
New York Jets's offense produces 333.0 yards per game; New England Patriots's defense has conceded 325.3. The 7.8-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. New York Jets averages 5.79 yards per play, which puts it #16 among 32 covered teams.
New England Patriots's offense produces 354.0 yards per game; New York Jets's defense has conceded 341.3. The 12.8-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. New England Patriots averages 5.57 yards per play, which puts it #23 among 32 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: New York Jets records 0.75, while New England Patriots records -1.25. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Explosive-play rate is another measurable difference: New York Jets records 9.1%, while New England Patriots records 11.3%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is New York Jets 14.9, New England Patriots 25.7. New England Patriots is projected to win by 10.8 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The NFL model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
New England Patriots -7.5 · DraftKings
Total 43.5 · DraftKings
Observed 10/13/2026, 7:04:42 AM CDT. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
New England Patriots is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 10.8-point margin and 40.6 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID nfl:2026_06_NYJ_NE. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:37 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.