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South Ark Daily Picks / Football Statistical Insights & Model Accuracy

Football Statistical Insights & Model Accuracy

Original analysis of verified season statistics and saved SE v3.0 forecasts.

Current season 2026 · comparison as of 2026-10-13T20:24:15.921Z. League ranks use only covered teams with the relevant metric. Missing data is excluded, and these statistics are unadjusted for opponent strength.

College Football scoring and defensive trends

138 covered teams · CFBD · saved update 2026-10-13T11:58:25.767Z. These are observed season-to-date statistics.

Highest scoring offenses

TeamLeague rankPoints / gameObserved games
Miami#1 / 13849.65
Georgia#2 / 13846.26
Alabama#3 / 13844.26
Notre Dame#4 / 13844.06
New Mexico#5 / 13843.45

Lowest points allowed

TeamLeague rankPoints / gameObserved games
Miami#1 / 1389.85
North Dakota State#2 / 13810.36
New Mexico#3 / 13810.65
Notre Dame#4 / 13811.06
Indiana#5 / 13811.86

Scoring and defensive leaderboards describe different sides of a matchup. A scoring rank alone does not establish betting value: opponent quality, home/away context and the actual offered line also matter. These averages do not replace the model forecast or adjust a locked pick.

Saved forecast accuracy

51 graded games. Margin MAE 15.1 points; total MAE 11.8 points. These are score-model errors, separate from betting win percentage.

NFL scoring and defensive trends

32 covered teams · nflverse · regular season · saved update 2026-10-13T12:01:42.001Z. These are observed season-to-date statistics.

Highest scoring offenses

TeamLeague rankPoints / gameObserved games
Detroit Lions#1 / 3232.85
Buffalo Bills#1 / 3232.85
San Francisco 49ers#3 / 3230.85
Carolina Panthers#4 / 3230.34
Kansas City Chiefs#5 / 3229.54

Lowest points allowed

TeamLeague rankPoints / gameObserved games
Minnesota Vikings#1 / 3212.85
Jacksonville Jaguars#2 / 3214.05
San Francisco 49ers#3 / 3218.65
New England Patriots#4 / 3218.85
Chicago Bears#5 / 3219.25

Scoring and defensive leaderboards describe different sides of a matchup. A scoring rank alone does not establish betting value: opponent quality, home/away context and the actual offered line also matter. These averages do not replace the model forecast or adjust a locked pick.

Saved forecast accuracy

15 graded games. Margin MAE 11.1 points; total MAE 10.6 points. These are score-model errors, separate from betting win percentage.

Compare complete offensive and defensive statistics in the workbook · Review the tracked betting record · Read dated editorial analysis

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