Arkansas State at Southern Miss
Kickoff 10/17/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Sun Belt / Sun Belt · Week 7
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT
Arkansas State
22.6PROJECTION
Southern Miss
34.7Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Arkansas State | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 28.2#75 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 26.4#87 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 28.8#112 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 34.6#129 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 376.3#83 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 415.6#52 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 395.0#111 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 475.2#135 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing yards / game | 243.5#56 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 271.4#27 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 132.8#106 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 144.2#86 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards / play | 6.34#43 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 5.94#69 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 6.34#122 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.42#123 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion | 50.8%#16 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 32.3%#115 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 47.9%#130 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 45.8%#123 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.33#74 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.60#100 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.50#31 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.40#41 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | 0.17#58 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | -0.20#82 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 0.50#136 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 2.00#65 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 3.50#130 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 5.20#72 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
Arkansas State has the higher observed scoring average: Arkansas State scores 28.2 points per game and Southern Miss scores 26.4, a 1.8-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Arkansas State allows 28.8 points per game, compared with 34.6 for Southern Miss. Arkansas State has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 5.8 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Arkansas State's offense produces 376.3 yards per game; Southern Miss's defense has conceded 475.2. The 98.9-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Arkansas State averages 6.34 yards per play, which puts it #43 among 138 covered teams.
Southern Miss's offense produces 415.6 yards per game; Arkansas State's defense has conceded 395.0. The 20.6-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Southern Miss averages 5.94 yards per play, which puts it #69 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Arkansas State records 50.8%, while Southern Miss records 32.3%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Arkansas State records 0.17, while Southern Miss records -0.20. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Arkansas State 22.6, Southern Miss 34.7. Southern Miss is projected to win by 12.2 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Southern Miss is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 12.2-point margin and 57.3 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Arkansas State statistics · Southern Miss statistics · Sun Belt previews
Related team matchups
Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401869934. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.