Akron at Miami (OH)
Kickoff 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT · Yager Stadium
Mid-American / Mid-American · Week 7
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT
Akron
12.7PROJECTION
Miami (OH)
39.2Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Miami (OH) -9.5
- Locked line
- -9.5
- Odds / sportsbook
- -112 · DraftKings
- Model edge
- 16.9 points
- Estimated success
- 62.7%
- Confidence
- Model estimate; betting calibration not required by this policy
- Published
- 10/12/2026, 12:27:16 PM CDT
Policy model-edge-3.0 · model SE v3.0. Empirical betting probabilities are not independently validated calibration. Authoritative tracked betting record →
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Akron | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 19.7#117 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 25.7#90 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 32.2#120 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 27.5#100 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 343.7#107 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 352.7#102 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 422.5#127 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 389.3#104 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 202.3#96 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 241.5#59 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 141.3#90 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 111.2#124 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 5.36#110 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.13#57 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 6.58#128 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.12#114 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 39.5%#80 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 35.7%#104 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 40.7%#97 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 42.7%#109 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.67#110 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.67#23 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.00#87 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.67#118 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.67#116 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.00#67 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 0.33#138 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.83#81 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 3.00#136 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 4.00#117 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
Miami (OH) has the higher observed scoring average: Akron scores 19.7 points per game and Miami (OH) scores 25.7, a 6.0-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Akron allows 32.2 points per game, compared with 27.5 for Miami (OH). Miami (OH) has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 4.7 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Akron's offense produces 343.7 yards per game; Miami (OH)'s defense has conceded 389.3. The 45.7-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Akron averages 5.36 yards per play, which puts it #110 among 138 covered teams.
Miami (OH)'s offense produces 352.7 yards per game; Akron's defense has conceded 422.5. The 69.8-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Miami (OH) averages 6.13 yards per play, which puts it #57 among 138 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Akron records -0.67, while Miami (OH) records 0.00. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Akron records 39.5%, while Miami (OH) records 35.7%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Akron 12.7, Miami (OH) 39.2. Miami (OH) is projected to win by 26.4 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Miami (OH) -9.5 · DraftKings
Total 47.5 · DraftKings
Observed 10/13/2026, 7:04:42 AM CDT. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Miami (OH) is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 26.4-point margin and 51.9 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Akron statistics · Miami (OH) statistics · Mid-American previews
Related team matchups
Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401866478. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.