Miami (OH) at Central Michigan
Kickoff 10/24/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Mid-American / Mid-American · Week 8
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT
Miami (OH)
25.6PROJECTION
Central Michigan
21.4Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:09:33 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Miami (OH) | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 25.7#90 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 17.0#127 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 27.5#100 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 26.3#96 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 352.7#102 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 285.0#132 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 389.3#104 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 373.3#90 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 241.5#59 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 96.3#135 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 111.2#124 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 188.7#42 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 6.13#57 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 4.94#123 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 6.12#114 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 5.69#95 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 35.7%#104 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 36.4%#98 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 42.7%#109 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 50.6%#135 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 0.67#23 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.67#110 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 0.67#118 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.83#16 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | 0.00#67 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.17#58 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.83#81 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.83#81 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 4.00#117 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 3.33#133 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Miami (OH) has the higher observed scoring average: Miami (OH) scores 25.7 points per game and Central Michigan scores 17.0, a 8.7-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Miami (OH) allows 27.5 points per game, compared with 26.3 for Central Michigan. Central Michigan has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 1.2 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Miami (OH)'s offense produces 352.7 yards per game; Central Michigan's defense has conceded 373.3. The 20.7-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Miami (OH) averages 6.13 yards per play, which puts it #57 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Central Michigan's offense produces 285.0 yards per game; Miami (OH)'s defense has conceded 389.3. The 104.3-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Central Michigan averages 4.94 yards per play, which puts it #123 among 138 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Miami (OH) records 0.00, while Central Michigan records 0.17. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Miami (OH) records 35.7%, while Central Michigan records 36.4%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Miami (OH) 25.6, Central Michigan 21.4. Miami (OH) is projected to win by 4.2 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Miami (OH) is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 4.2-point margin and 47.0 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Miami (OH) statistics · Central Michigan statistics · Mid-American previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401866476. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.