Colorado State at Texas State
Kickoff 10/15/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Pac-12 / Pac-12 · Week 7
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT
Colorado State
21.4PROJECTION
Texas State
48.4Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:07:25 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Texas State -13.5
- Locked line
- -13.5
- Odds / sportsbook
- -122 · FanDuel
- Model edge
- 13.5 points
- Estimated success
- 53.4%
- Confidence
- Model estimate; betting calibration not required by this policy
- Published
- 10/12/2026, 12:27:16 PM CDT
Policy model-edge-3.0 · model SE v3.0. Empirical betting probabilities are not independently validated calibration. Authoritative tracked betting record →
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Colorado State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 37.4#27 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 34.8#40 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 38.6#133 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 33.2#126 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 447.0#36 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 531.6#2 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 468.2#134 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 415.2#124 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing yards / game | 272.0#26 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 268.0#33 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 175.0#55 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 263.6#5 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards / play | 6.77#23 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 6.78#22 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 7.65#138 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.57#86 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion | 47.1%#31 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 55.4%#4 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 45.3%#119 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 41.3%#101 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 0.80#36 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.80#118 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Takeaways / game | 2.20#6 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.00#87 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | 1.40#5 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | -0.80#122 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.40#108 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 1.00#124 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 4.40#103 of 138 covered teams · 5 games | 5.40#64 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical matchup analysis
Colorado State has the higher observed scoring average: Colorado State scores 37.4 points per game and Texas State scores 34.8, a 2.6-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Colorado State allows 38.6 points per game, compared with 33.2 for Texas State. Texas State has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 5.4 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Colorado State's offense produces 447.0 yards per game; Texas State's defense has conceded 415.2. The 31.8-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Colorado State averages 6.77 yards per play, which puts it #23 among 138 covered teams.
Texas State's offense produces 531.6 yards per game; Colorado State's defense has conceded 468.2. The 63.4-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Texas State averages 6.78 yards per play, which puts it #22 among 138 covered teams.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Colorado State records 1.40, while Texas State records -0.80. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Colorado State records 47.1%, while Texas State records 55.4%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Colorado State 21.4, Texas State 48.4. Texas State is projected to win by 27.0 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Texas State -14.5 · FanDuel
Total 71.5 · FanDuel
Observed 10/13/2026, 7:04:42 AM CDT. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Texas State is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 27.0-point margin and 69.9 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Colorado State statistics · Texas State statistics · Pac-12 previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401860923. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/11/2026, 2:14:44 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.