Utah State at Texas State
Kickoff 10/24/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Pac-12 / Pac-12 · Week 8
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:18:58 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:18:58 PM CDT
Utah State
13.1PROJECTION
Texas State
39.3Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:18:58 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Utah State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 14.5#135 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 34.8#40 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Points allowed / game | 23.5#71 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 33.2#126 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Total yards / game | 310.0#124 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 531.6#2 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 359.7#81 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 415.2#124 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing yards / game | 189.8#107 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 268.0#33 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 120.2#116 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 263.6#5 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards / play | 4.99#121 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.78#22 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.13#55 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 5.57#86 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion | 37.5%#89 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 55.4%#4 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 40.4%#95 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 41.3%#101 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Turnovers / game | 2.00#131 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.80#118 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.17#77 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.00#87 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.83#127 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | -0.80#122 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.50#102 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.00#124 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 4.67#94 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 5.40#64 of 138 covered teams · 5 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Texas State has the higher observed scoring average: Utah State scores 14.5 points per game and Texas State scores 34.8, a 20.3-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Utah State allows 23.5 points per game, compared with 33.2 for Texas State. Utah State has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 9.7 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Utah State's offense produces 310.0 yards per game; Texas State's defense has conceded 415.2. The 105.2-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Utah State averages 4.99 yards per play, which puts it #121 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Texas State's offense produces 531.6 yards per game; Utah State's defense has conceded 359.7. The 171.9-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Texas State averages 6.78 yards per play, which puts it #22 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Utah State records 37.5%, while Texas State records 55.4%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Utah State records -0.83, while Texas State records -0.80. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Utah State 13.1, Texas State 39.3. Texas State is projected to win by 26.2 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Texas State is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 26.2-point margin and 52.5 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Utah State statistics · Texas State statistics · Pac-12 previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401860906. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.