San Diego State at Boise State
Kickoff 11/21/2026, 8:30:00 PM CST · Albertsons Stadium
Pac-12 / Pac-12 · Week 12
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT
San Diego State
11.6PROJECTION
Boise State
45.2Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:20:57 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | San Diego State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 22.8#104 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 35.0#39 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 35.0#131 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 22.3#61 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 277.7#135 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 450.5#35 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 477.8#136 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 368.2#87 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 143.2#130 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 216.0#85 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 134.5#100 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 234.5#9 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 4.58#134 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.36#41 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.90#103 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.80#132 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 26.9%#133 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 50.0%#19 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 45.7%#122 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 27.4%#8 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 1.50#92 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.50#11 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.17#77 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.00#87 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.33#90 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 0.50#37 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.67#91 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 2.33#41 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 4.67#94 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 6.17#40 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
Boise State has the higher observed scoring average: San Diego State scores 22.8 points per game and Boise State scores 35.0, a 12.2-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
San Diego State allows 35.0 points per game, compared with 22.3 for Boise State. Boise State has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 12.7 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
San Diego State's offense produces 277.7 yards per game; Boise State's defense has conceded 368.2. The 90.5-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. San Diego State averages 4.58 yards per play, which puts it #134 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
Boise State's offense produces 450.5 yards per game; San Diego State's defense has conceded 477.8. The 27.3-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Boise State averages 6.36 yards per play, which puts it #41 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: San Diego State records 26.9%, while Boise State records 50.0%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: San Diego State records -0.33, while Boise State records 0.50. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is San Diego State 11.6, Boise State 45.2. Boise State is projected to win by 33.6 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
Boise State is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 33.6-point margin and 56.9 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · San Diego State statistics · Boise State statistics · Pac-12 previews
Related team matchups
Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401860925. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.