Utah State at San Diego State
Kickoff 11/14/2026, 8:30:00 PM CST · Snapdragon Stadium
Pac-12 / Pac-12 · Week 11
Article published 10/13/2026, 12:20:28 PM CDT · last material update 10/13/2026, 12:20:28 PM CDT
Utah State
19.4PROJECTION
San Diego State
24.5Model projections are estimates. Forecast timestamp 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT · feature-data cutoff 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Verified stored season-to-date statistics; descriptive comparisons are separate from the original scoring-model feature window. Comparison snapshot 10/13/2026, 12:20:28 PM CDT.
Official betting selection
Awaiting Odds
The model projection is available, but no eligible verified sportsbook offer has produced a locked official selection.
Team statistics & league rankings
Season-to-date comparison · ranks use covered teams within College Football · #1 is best for each metric.
| Metric | Utah State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 14.5#135 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 22.8#104 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Points allowed / game | 23.5#71 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 35.0#131 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Total yards / game | 310.0#124 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 277.7#135 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / game | 359.7#81 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 477.8#136 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing yards / game | 189.8#107 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 143.2#130 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Rushing yards / game | 120.2#116 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 134.5#100 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards / play | 4.99#121 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 4.58#134 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Yards allowed / play | 5.13#55 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 5.90#103 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion | 37.5%#89 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 26.9%#133 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Third-down conversion allowed | 40.4%#95 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 45.7%#122 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Turnovers / game | 2.00#131 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.50#92 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Takeaways / game | 1.17#77 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.17#77 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Offensive EPA / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| EPA allowed / play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Offensive success rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Success rate allowed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Red-zone scoring rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Turnover differential / game | -0.83#127 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | -0.33#90 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Defensive sacks / game | 1.50#102 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 1.67#91 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Tackles for loss / game | 4.67#94 of 138 covered teams · 6 games | 4.67#94 of 138 covered teams · 6 games |
| Passing EPA / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Rushing EPA / rush play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Explosive-play rate | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Sacks suffered / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| QB hits / pass play | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Adjusted strength of schedule | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Statistical advantages
San Diego State has the higher observed scoring average: Utah State scores 14.5 points per game and San Diego State scores 22.8, a 8.3-point difference. These are unadjusted season averages, not an estimate of this game's winning margin.
Utah State allows 23.5 points per game, compared with 35.0 for San Diego State. Utah State has the stronger defensive scoring figure by 11.5 points per game. Opponent quality and game situations can affect this comparison; a better raw rank is not proof of a better adjusted defense.
Utah State's offense produces 310.0 yards per game; San Diego State's defense has conceded 477.8. The 167.8-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. Utah State averages 4.99 yards per play, which puts it #121 among 138 covered teams.
Key matchup factors
San Diego State's offense produces 277.7 yards per game; Utah State's defense has conceded 359.7. The 82.0-yard difference compares two observed averages rather than predicting a yardage total. San Diego State averages 4.58 yards per play, which puts it #134 among 138 covered teams.
Third-down conversion is another measurable difference: Utah State records 37.5%, while San Diego State records 26.9%. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
Turnover differential / game is another measurable difference: Utah State records -0.83, while San Diego State records -0.33. Higher is better for this metric. Compare the sample counts in the table before treating a difference as stable.
The stored production forecast is Utah State 19.4, San Diego State 24.5. San Diego State is projected to win by 5.1 points. SE v3.0 uses recent team and opponent profiles rather than just the full-season averages shown here. The college football model includes home/away context; an independently attributable home-field point adjustment is not exposed for this game, so none is claimed.
Saved sportsbook observations
Spread unavailable
Total unavailable
Observed Not verified. Saved market observations can differ from the original locked betting line.
Final model assessment
San Diego State is the projected winner in the original stored scoring forecast, with a 5.1-point margin and 43.9 combined points. The comparisons above describe the scoring, defensive and efficiency context for this matchup. The official selection, when published, remains the specific wager in the tracker.
Explore this matchup
Game previews · Spreadsheet entry · Tracked betting record · Utah State statistics · San Diego State statistics · Pac-12 previews
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Definitions, coverage & original timestamps
Game ID college-football:401860915. Article creation is not the original prediction timestamp. Original forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT; final stored pregame forecast 10/12/2026, 12:27:21 PM CDT. Rates use summed observed numerators and denominators; game averages use games with that statistic. Rankings use competition ties within the covered league population. NFL data uses regular-season games. EPA / play uses observed PBP EPA counts; success means positive EPA. Explosive plays use the source aggregation’s 20-yard passing / 10-yard rushing thresholds. CFB red-zone scoring includes field goals and touchdowns; a different NFL red-zone rate is not substituted. Quarterback hit rate is a hit proxy, not a complete pressure rate. Missing adjusted strength of schedule, pressure rates or archived inputs remain unavailable.