South Ark Daily Picks / Ohio State at Indiana

Ohio State at Indiana

Model projection, matchup context, market snapshot and limitations.

WEEK 7 · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CT

Ohio State at Indiana

Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

SE v3.0 PROJECTION22.9 — 34.4

Separate CFBD line snapshot: Indiana spread 2.5 · total 48.5
Line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CT

Our prediction vs sportsbook odds

Our projected score: Ohio State 22.9 · Indiana 34.4

DraftKingsCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Indiana win 47.5%	Indiana (+154) Ohio State (-185)	+8.1 percentage points vs Indiana break-even
Spread	Indiana -11.5	Indiana +4 (-110) Ohio State -4 (-110)	+15.5 points home-side edge; favors Indiana
Total	57.4	Over 50.5 (-110) Under 50.5 (-110)	+6.9 points (model − market total)

Ohio State at Indiana
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

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FanDuelCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Indiana win 47.5%	Indiana (+150) Ohio State (-182)	+7.5 percentage points vs Indiana break-even
Spread	Indiana -11.5	Indiana +3.5 (-102) Ohio State -3.5 (-120)	+15 points home-side edge; favors Indiana
Total	57.4	Over 50.5 (-115) Under 50.5 (-105)	+6.9 points (model − market total)

Ohio State at Indiana
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

BetMGMCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Indiana win 47.5%	Indiana (+155) Ohio State (-190)	+8.2 percentage points vs Indiana break-even
Spread	Indiana -11.5	Indiana +4 (-110) Ohio State -4 (-108)	+15.5 points home-side edge; favors Indiana
Total	57.4	Over 50.5 (-110) Under 50.5 (-108)	+6.9 points (model − market total)

Ohio State at Indiana
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

Differences are arithmetic comparisons, not validated betting edges or positive-EV recommendations. Bookmaker prices include margin and may have changed.

Current model picks and edge qualifications →

2026-10-11 · CENTRAL TIME · model-edge-3.0

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No Qualifying Pick Today

CFB and NFL: spread edge ≥3 points or total edge ≥4 points. NHL: puck-line/total edge ≥0.5 goals; moneyline probability ≥52%, ≥2 percentage points above break-even and positive raw EV. Calibration is tracked, not required for these picks.

0 games on today’s research board

No verified games on today’s imported slate. Limited coverage does not establish that no games are scheduled.

Model / market research comparisons

Unvalidated residual estimates are descriptive research, not published bets. Expected value below is arithmetic per unit staked, not a validated profit forecast; pushes return the stake.

Game / selection	Sportsbook	Line / price	Research probability	Break-even	Raw EV	Publication status
No consistent model distribution and verified paired prices on today’s slate.

Report computed 10/11/2026, 3:19:42 PM CDT. All comparisons derive from the same cached forecast and line snapshot. Data freshness → · Methodology →

Projected outcome — research only

Tie is the projected outcome. Spread -11.5; total 57.4. Home win estimate 47.5%.

Uncertainty interval unavailable: insufficient validation.

Market discussion

Separate CFBD snapshot: home-side gap — points; total gap —. These descriptive gaps do not price the SportsGameOdds offers above. Current qualifying selections appear above and in the locked pending record.

Conditions and counterarguments

Weather unavailable or outside forecast horizon. Injuries: no current verified availability report. Travel distance: unavailable. Missing contextual data and a short statistical sample could change this projection.

Statistical comparisons & assumptions

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	42.7	6
points against	13.2	6
off yards per play	7.3	6
off yards per pass	11.3	6
off yards per rush	4.3	6
off third down rate	0.4	6
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	1.0	6
offensive plays	68.7	6
def yards per play allowed	3.9	6
def third down rate allowed	0.4	6
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.3	6

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	40.2	6
points against	11.8	6
off yards per play	7.8	6
off yards per pass	11.1	6
off yards per rush	5.8	6
off third down rate	0.4	6
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	0.2	6
offensive plays	59.2	6
def yards per play allowed	4.1	6
def third down rate allowed	0.3	6
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	0.7	6

Data provided by CFBD · retrieved 10/8/2026, 8:16:05 PM CT.

Sportsbook game lines

Cached SportsGameOdds snapshots, independent of model projections. Coverage is limited to a budgeted selection. Prices may have changed; these are not live offers or recommendations. Odds board & object budget →

Game / start (CT)	Sportsbook	Market / selection	Line	American odds	Book updated / retrieved (CT)	Freshness
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Ohio State	—	-185	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · Ohio State	—	-182	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · Ohio State	—	-190	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Indiana	—	+154	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · Indiana	—	+150	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · Indiana	—	+155	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	DraftKings	spread · Ohio State	-4	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	FanDuel	spread · Ohio State	-3.5	-120	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	BetMGM	spread · Ohio State	-4	-108	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	DraftKings	spread · Indiana	4	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	FanDuel	spread · Indiana	3.5	-102	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	BetMGM	spread · Indiana	4	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	DraftKings	total · over	50.5	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	FanDuel	total · over	50.5	-115	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	BetMGM	total · over	50.5	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	DraftKings	total · under	50.5	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	FanDuel	total · under	50.5	-105	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Ohio State at Indiana 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	BetMGM	total · under	50.5	-108	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot