South Ark Daily Picks / Penn State at Michigan
Model projection, matchup context, market snapshot and limitations.
WEEK 7 · 10/16/2026, 11:00:00 PM CT
Michigan Stadium
Separate CFBD line snapshot: Michigan spread -5.5 · total 43.5
Line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CT
No matched cached offer is available. The numbers above are model estimates. Browse available odds →
2026-10-11 · CENTRAL TIME · model-edge-3.0
CFB and NFL: spread edge ≥3 points or total edge ≥4 points. NHL: puck-line/total edge ≥0.5 goals; moneyline probability ≥52%, ≥2 percentage points above break-even and positive raw EV. Calibration is tracked, not required for these picks.
No verified games on today’s imported slate. Limited coverage does not establish that no games are scheduled.
Unvalidated residual estimates are descriptive research, not published bets. Expected value below is arithmetic per unit staked, not a validated profit forecast; pushes return the stake.
| Game / selection | Sportsbook | Line / price | Research probability | Break-even | Raw EV | Publication status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No consistent model distribution and verified paired prices on today’s slate. | ||||||
Report computed 10/11/2026, 3:20:37 PM CDT. All comparisons derive from the same cached forecast and line snapshot. Data freshness → · Methodology →
Tie is the projected outcome. Spread -7.5; total 49.1. Home win estimate 35.6%.
Uncertainty interval unavailable: insufficient validation.
Separate CFBD snapshot: home-side gap — points; total gap —. These descriptive gaps do not price the SportsGameOdds offers above. Current qualifying selections appear above and in the locked pending record.
Weather unavailable or outside forecast horizon. Injuries: no current verified availability report. Travel distance: unavailable. Missing contextual data and a short statistical sample could change this projection.
| Recent metric | Value | Games supplied |
|---|---|---|
| points for | 30.5 | 6 |
| points against | 18.5 | 6 |
| off yards per play | 6.0 | 6 |
| off yards per pass | 8.5 | 6 |
| off yards per rush | 3.8 | 6 |
| off third down rate | 0.4 | 6 |
| off redzone scoring rate | — | 0 |
| off turnovers | 0.7 | 6 |
| offensive plays | 65.2 | 6 |
| def yards per play allowed | 5.0 | 6 |
| def third down rate allowed | 0.3 | 6 |
| def redzone scoring rate allowed | — | 0 |
| def takeaways | 1.5 | 6 |
| Recent metric | Value | Games supplied |
|---|---|---|
| points for | 23.0 | 5 |
| points against | 15.8 | 5 |
| off yards per play | 5.3 | 5 |
| off yards per pass | 7.5 | 5 |
| off yards per rush | 3.8 | 5 |
| off third down rate | 0.4 | 5 |
| off redzone scoring rate | — | 0 |
| off turnovers | 1.8 | 5 |
| offensive plays | 58.6 | 5 |
| def yards per play allowed | 4.0 | 5 |
| def third down rate allowed | 0.3 | 5 |
| def redzone scoring rate allowed | — | 0 |
| def takeaways | 1.0 | 5 |
Data provided by CFBD · retrieved 10/8/2026, 8:16:05 PM CT.
Cached SportsGameOdds snapshots, independent of model projections. Coverage is limited to a budgeted selection. Prices may have changed; these are not live offers or recommendations. Odds board & object budget →
No cached game prices in this selection. No odds are invented. Source access, bookmaker coverage or the free budget may limit availability.