South Ark Daily Picks / East Carolina at UAB
East Carolina at UAB
Model projection, matchup context, market snapshot and limitations.
WEEK 7 · 10/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM CT
Protective Stadium
SE v3.0 PROJECTION16.5 — 30.0
Separate CFBD line snapshot: UAB spread — · total —
Line snapshot Not available CT
Our prediction vs sportsbook odds
Our projected score: East Carolina 16.5 · UAB 30.0
DraftKingsCached sportsbook odds
| Market | Our model | Sportsbook snapshot | Model / market difference |
|---|
| Moneyline | UAB win 53.4% | UAB (+170)
East Carolina (-205) | +16.4 percentage points vs UAB break-even |
|---|
| Spread | UAB -13.5 | UAB Unavailable
East Carolina Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| Total | 46.5 | Over 50.5 (-115)
Under 50.5 (-105) | -4 points (model − market total) |
|---|
East Carolina at UAB
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT
Compare 2 more sportsbooks
FanDuelCached sportsbook odds
| Market | Our model | Sportsbook snapshot | Model / market difference |
|---|
| Moneyline | UAB win 53.4% | UAB (+180)
East Carolina (-220) | +17.7 percentage points vs UAB break-even |
|---|
| Spread | UAB -13.5 | UAB Unavailable
East Carolina Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| Total | 46.5 | Over 50.5 (-115)
Under 50.5 (-105) | -4 points (model − market total) |
|---|
East Carolina at UAB
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT
BetMGMCached sportsbook odds
| Market | Our model | Sportsbook snapshot | Model / market difference |
|---|
| Moneyline | UAB win 53.4% | UAB (+170)
East Carolina (-210) | +16.4 percentage points vs UAB break-even |
|---|
| Spread | UAB -13.5 | UAB Unavailable
East Carolina Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| Total | 46.5 | Over 50.5 (-112)
Under 50.5 (-108) | -4 points (model − market total) |
|---|
East Carolina at UAB
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT
Differences are arithmetic comparisons, not validated betting edges or positive-EV recommendations. Bookmaker prices include margin and may have changed.
Current model picks and edge qualifications →
2026-10-11 · CENTRAL TIME · model-edge-3.0
Picks of the Day
Open Bet Slip →
No Qualifying Pick Today
CFB and NFL: spread edge ≥3 points or total edge ≥4 points. NHL: puck-line/total edge ≥0.5 goals; moneyline probability ≥52%, ≥2 percentage points above break-even and positive raw EV. Calibration is tracked, not required for these picks.
0 games on today’s research board
No verified games on today’s imported slate. Limited coverage does not establish that no games are scheduled.
Model / market research comparisons
Unvalidated residual estimates are descriptive research, not published bets. Expected value below is arithmetic per unit staked, not a validated profit forecast; pushes return the stake.
| Game / selection | Sportsbook | Line / price | Research probability | Break-even | Raw EV | Publication status |
|---|
| No consistent model distribution and verified paired prices on today’s slate. |
Report computed 10/11/2026, 3:20:49 PM CDT. All comparisons derive from the same cached forecast and line snapshot. Data freshness → · Methodology →
Projected outcome — research only
Tie is the projected outcome. Spread -13.5; total 46.5. Home win estimate 53.4%.
Uncertainty interval unavailable: insufficient validation.
Market discussion
Separate CFBD snapshot: home-side gap — points; total gap —. These descriptive gaps do not price the SportsGameOdds offers above. Current qualifying selections appear above and in the locked pending record.
Conditions and counterarguments
Weather unavailable or outside forecast horizon. Injuries: no current verified availability report. Travel distance: unavailable. Missing contextual data and a short statistical sample could change this projection.
Statistical comparisons & assumptions
| Recent metric | Value | Games supplied |
|---|
| points for | 24.8 | 5 |
|---|
| points against | 22.6 | 5 |
|---|
| off yards per play | 5.4 | 5 |
|---|
| off yards per pass | 6.5 | 5 |
|---|
| off yards per rush | 4.3 | 5 |
|---|
| off third down rate | 0.3 | 5 |
|---|
| off redzone scoring rate | — | 0 |
|---|
| off turnovers | 1.6 | 5 |
|---|
| offensive plays | 63.2 | 5 |
|---|
| def yards per play allowed | 4.5 | 5 |
|---|
| def third down rate allowed | 0.3 | 5 |
|---|
| def redzone scoring rate allowed | — | 0 |
|---|
| def takeaways | 1.6 | 5 |
|---|
| Recent metric | Value | Games supplied |
|---|
| points for | 22.2 | 6 |
|---|
| points against | 25.8 | 6 |
|---|
| off yards per play | 5.0 | 6 |
|---|
| off yards per pass | 7.0 | 6 |
|---|
| off yards per rush | 3.9 | 6 |
|---|
| off third down rate | 0.4 | 6 |
|---|
| off redzone scoring rate | — | 0 |
|---|
| off turnovers | 1.7 | 6 |
|---|
| offensive plays | 66.7 | 6 |
|---|
| def yards per play allowed | 5.3 | 6 |
|---|
| def third down rate allowed | 0.4 | 6 |
|---|
| def redzone scoring rate allowed | — | 0 |
|---|
| def takeaways | 1.3 | 6 |
|---|
Data provided by CFBD · retrieved 10/8/2026, 8:16:05 PM CT.
Sportsbook game lines
Cached SportsGameOdds snapshots, independent of model projections. Coverage is limited to a budgeted selection. Prices may have changed; these are not live offers or recommendations. Odds board & object budget →
| Game / start (CT) | Sportsbook | Market / selection | Line | American odds | Book updated / retrieved (CT) | Freshness |
|---|
East Carolina at UAB
10/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT | FanDuel | moneyline · East Carolina | — | -220 | 10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT
10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT | Cached snapshot |
East Carolina at UAB
10/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT | DraftKings | moneyline · East Carolina | — | -205 | 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT
10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT | Cached snapshot |
East Carolina at UAB
10/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT | BetMGM | moneyline · East Carolina | — | -210 | 10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT
10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT | Cached snapshot |
East Carolina at UAB
10/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT | FanDuel | moneyline · UAB | — | +180 | 10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT
10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT | Cached snapshot |
East Carolina at UAB
10/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT | DraftKings | moneyline · UAB | — | +170 | 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT
10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT | Cached snapshot |
East Carolina at UAB
10/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT | BetMGM | moneyline · UAB | — | +170 | 10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT
10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT | Cached snapshot |
East Carolina at UAB
10/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT | FanDuel | total · over | 50.5 | -115 | 10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT
10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT | Cached snapshot |
East Carolina at UAB
10/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT | DraftKings | total · over | 50.5 | -115 | 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT
10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT | Cached snapshot |
East Carolina at UAB
10/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT | BetMGM | total · over | 50.5 | -112 | 10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT
10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT | Cached snapshot |
East Carolina at UAB
10/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT | FanDuel | total · under | 50.5 | -105 | 10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT
10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT | Cached snapshot |
East Carolina at UAB
10/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT | DraftKings | total · under | 50.5 | -105 | 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT
10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT | Cached snapshot |
East Carolina at UAB
10/15/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT | BetMGM | total · under | 50.5 | -108 | 10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT
10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT | Cached snapshot |