South Ark Daily Picks / Toledo at Eastern Michigan

Toledo at Eastern Michigan

Model projection, matchup context, market snapshot and limitations.

WEEK 7 · 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CT

Toledo at Eastern Michigan

Rynearson Stadium

SE v3.0 PROJECTION24.1 — 25.2

Separate CFBD line snapshot: Eastern Michigan spread — · total —
Line snapshot Not available CT

Our prediction vs sportsbook odds

Our projected score: Toledo 24.1 · Eastern Michigan 25.2

DraftKingsCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Eastern Michigan win 22.0%	Eastern Michigan (+164) Toledo (-198)	-15.8 percentage points vs Eastern Michigan break-even
Spread	Eastern Michigan -1.1	Eastern Michigan +5.5 (-112) Toledo -5.5 (-108)	+6.6 points home-side edge; favors Eastern Michigan
Total	49.2	Over 52.5 (-115) Under 52.5 (-105)	-3.3 points (model − market total)

Toledo at Eastern Michigan
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

Compare 2 more sportsbooks

FanDuelCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Eastern Michigan win 22.0%	Eastern Michigan (+162) Toledo (-196)	-16.1 percentage points vs Eastern Michigan break-even
Spread	Eastern Michigan -1.1	Eastern Michigan +4.5 (-106) Toledo -4.5 (-114)	+5.6 points home-side edge; favors Eastern Michigan
Total	49.2	Over 53.5 (-105) Under 53.5 (-115)	-4.3 points (model − market total)

Toledo at Eastern Michigan
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

BetMGMCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Eastern Michigan win 22.0%	Eastern Michigan (+165) Toledo (-200)	-15.7 percentage points vs Eastern Michigan break-even
Spread	Eastern Michigan -1.1	Eastern Michigan +5.5 (-110) Toledo -5.5 (-108)	+6.6 points home-side edge; favors Eastern Michigan
Total	49.2	Over 52.5 (-110) Under 52.5 (-108)	-3.3 points (model − market total)

Toledo at Eastern Michigan
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

Differences are arithmetic comparisons, not validated betting edges or positive-EV recommendations. Bookmaker prices include margin and may have changed.

Current model picks and edge qualifications →

2026-10-11 · CENTRAL TIME · model-edge-3.0

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No Qualifying Pick Today

CFB and NFL: spread edge ≥3 points or total edge ≥4 points. NHL: puck-line/total edge ≥0.5 goals; moneyline probability ≥52%, ≥2 percentage points above break-even and positive raw EV. Calibration is tracked, not required for these picks.

0 games on today’s research board

No verified games on today’s imported slate. Limited coverage does not establish that no games are scheduled.

Model / market research comparisons

Unvalidated residual estimates are descriptive research, not published bets. Expected value below is arithmetic per unit staked, not a validated profit forecast; pushes return the stake.

Game / selection	Sportsbook	Line / price	Research probability	Break-even	Raw EV	Publication status
No consistent model distribution and verified paired prices on today’s slate.

Report computed 10/11/2026, 3:20:11 PM CDT. All comparisons derive from the same cached forecast and line snapshot. Data freshness → · Methodology →

Projected outcome — research only

Tie is the projected outcome. Spread -1.1; total 49.2. Home win estimate 22.0%.

Uncertainty interval unavailable: insufficient validation.

Market discussion

Separate CFBD snapshot: home-side gap — points; total gap —. These descriptive gaps do not price the SportsGameOdds offers above. Current qualifying selections appear above and in the locked pending record.

Conditions and counterarguments

Weather unavailable or outside forecast horizon. Injuries: no current verified availability report. Travel distance: unavailable. Missing contextual data and a short statistical sample could change this projection.

Statistical comparisons & assumptions

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	36.7	6
points against	25.2	6
off yards per play	6.6	6
off yards per pass	8.7	6
off yards per rush	4.9	6
off third down rate	0.4	6
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	1.2	6
offensive plays	68.3	6
def yards per play allowed	4.7	6
def third down rate allowed	0.4	6
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.0	6

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	22.6	7
points against	24.7	7
off yards per play	4.9	7
off yards per pass	5.9	7
off yards per rush	3.7	7
off third down rate	0.4	7
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	1.1	7
offensive plays	66.4	7
def yards per play allowed	5.8	7
def third down rate allowed	0.4	7
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.1	7

Data provided by CFBD · retrieved 10/8/2026, 8:16:05 PM CT.

Sportsbook game lines

Cached SportsGameOdds snapshots, independent of model projections. Coverage is limited to a budgeted selection. Prices may have changed; these are not live offers or recommendations. Odds board & object budget →

Game / start (CT)	Sportsbook	Market / selection	Line	American odds	Book updated / retrieved (CT)	Freshness
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · Toledo	—	-196	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Toledo	—	-198	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · Toledo	—	-200	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · Eastern Michigan	—	+162	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Eastern Michigan	—	+164	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · Eastern Michigan	—	+165	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	total · over	53.5	-105	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · over	52.5	-115	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	total · over	52.5	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	total · under	53.5	-115	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · under	52.5	-105	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	total · under	52.5	-108	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	spread · Toledo	-4.5	-114	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	spread · Toledo	-5.5	-108	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	spread · Toledo	-5.5	-108	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	spread · Eastern Michigan	4.5	-106	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	spread · Eastern Michigan	5.5	-112	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Toledo at Eastern Michigan 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	spread · Eastern Michigan	5.5	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot