South Ark Daily Picks / Georgia State at James Madison

Georgia State at James Madison

Model projection, matchup context, market snapshot and limitations.

WEEK 7 · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CT

Georgia State at James Madison

Bridgeforth Stadium

SE v3.0 PROJECTION22.0 — 35.9

Separate CFBD line snapshot: James Madison spread — · total —
Line snapshot Not available CT

Our prediction vs sportsbook odds

Our projected score: Georgia State 22.0 · James Madison 35.9

DraftKingsCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	James Madison win 53.4%	James Madison (-470) Georgia State (+360)	-29.1 percentage points vs James Madison break-even
Spread	James Madison -13.9	James Madison -11.5 (-110) Georgia State +11.5 (-110)	+2.4 points home-side edge; favors James Madison
Total	57.9	Over 57.5 (-105) Under 57.5 (-115)	+0.4 points (model − market total)

Georgia State at James Madison
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

Compare 2 more sportsbooks

FanDuelCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	James Madison win 53.4%	James Madison (-490) Georgia State (+365)	-29.7 percentage points vs James Madison break-even
Spread	James Madison -13.9	James Madison -11.5 (-110) Georgia State +11.5 (-110)	+2.4 points home-side edge; favors James Madison
Total	57.9	Over 57.5 (-106) Under 57.5 (-114)	+0.4 points (model − market total)

Georgia State at James Madison
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

BetMGMCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	James Madison win 53.4%	James Madison (-475) Georgia State (+375)	-29.2 percentage points vs James Madison break-even
Spread	James Madison -13.9	James Madison -11.5 (-108) Georgia State +11.5 (-110)	+2.4 points home-side edge; favors James Madison
Total	57.9	Over 57.5 (-105) Under 57.5 (-112)	+0.4 points (model − market total)

Georgia State at James Madison
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

Differences are arithmetic comparisons, not validated betting edges or positive-EV recommendations. Bookmaker prices include margin and may have changed.

Current model picks and edge qualifications →

2026-10-11 · CENTRAL TIME · model-edge-3.0

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No Qualifying Pick Today

CFB and NFL: spread edge ≥3 points or total edge ≥4 points. NHL: puck-line/total edge ≥0.5 goals; moneyline probability ≥52%, ≥2 percentage points above break-even and positive raw EV. Calibration is tracked, not required for these picks.

0 games on today’s research board

No verified games on today’s imported slate. Limited coverage does not establish that no games are scheduled.

Model / market research comparisons

Unvalidated residual estimates are descriptive research, not published bets. Expected value below is arithmetic per unit staked, not a validated profit forecast; pushes return the stake.

Game / selection	Sportsbook	Line / price	Research probability	Break-even	Raw EV	Publication status
No consistent model distribution and verified paired prices on today’s slate.

Report computed 10/11/2026, 3:21:02 PM CDT. All comparisons derive from the same cached forecast and line snapshot. Data freshness → · Methodology →

Projected outcome — research only

Tie is the projected outcome. Spread -13.9; total 57.9. Home win estimate 53.4%.

Uncertainty interval unavailable: insufficient validation.

Market discussion

Separate CFBD snapshot: home-side gap — points; total gap —. These descriptive gaps do not price the SportsGameOdds offers above. Current qualifying selections appear above and in the locked pending record.

Conditions and counterarguments

Weather unavailable or outside forecast horizon. Injuries: no current verified availability report. Travel distance: unavailable. Missing contextual data and a short statistical sample could change this projection.

Statistical comparisons & assumptions

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	39.4	5
points against	19.0	5
off yards per play	6.7	5
off yards per pass	9.2	5
off yards per rush	5.3	5
off third down rate	0.5	5
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	1.6	5
offensive plays	70.0	5
def yards per play allowed	5.0	5
def third down rate allowed	0.3	5
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.0	5

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	41.8	6
points against	15.0	6
off yards per play	6.7	6
off yards per pass	8.1	6
off yards per rush	5.8	6
off third down rate	0.4	6
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	0.7	6
offensive plays	68.0	6
def yards per play allowed	4.9	6
def third down rate allowed	0.4	6
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.7	6

Data provided by CFBD · retrieved 10/8/2026, 8:16:05 PM CT.

Sportsbook game lines

Cached SportsGameOdds snapshots, independent of model projections. Coverage is limited to a budgeted selection. Prices may have changed; these are not live offers or recommendations. Odds board & object budget →

Game / start (CT)	Sportsbook	Market / selection	Line	American odds	Book updated / retrieved (CT)	Freshness
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · Georgia State	—	+365	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Georgia State	—	+360	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · Georgia State	—	+375	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · James Madison	—	-490	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · James Madison	—	-470	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · James Madison	—	-475	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	FanDuel	total · over	57.5	-106	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	DraftKings	total · over	57.5	-105	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	BetMGM	total · over	57.5	-105	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	FanDuel	total · under	57.5	-114	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	DraftKings	total · under	57.5	-115	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	BetMGM	total · under	57.5	-112	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	FanDuel	spread · Georgia State	11.5	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	DraftKings	spread · Georgia State	11.5	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	BetMGM	spread · Georgia State	11.5	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	FanDuel	spread · James Madison	-11.5	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	DraftKings	spread · James Madison	-11.5	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Georgia State at James Madison 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT	BetMGM	spread · James Madison	-11.5	-108	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot