South Ark Daily Picks / Florida International at Jacksonville State

Florida International at Jacksonville State

Model projection, matchup context, market snapshot and limitations.

WEEK 7 · 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CT

Florida International at Jacksonville State

AmFirst Stadium

SE v3.0 PROJECTION18.5 — 28.2

Separate CFBD line snapshot: Jacksonville State spread — · total —
Line snapshot Not available CT

Our prediction vs sportsbook odds

Our projected score: Florida International 18.5 · Jacksonville State 28.2

DraftKingsCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Jacksonville State win 39.8%	Jacksonville State (-142) Florida International (+120)	-18.8 percentage points vs Jacksonville State break-even
Spread	Jacksonville State -9.6	Jacksonville State -3 (-102) Florida International +3 (-118)	+6.6 points home-side edge; favors Jacksonville State
Total	46.7	Over 45.5 (-105) Under 45.5 (-115)	+1.2 points (model − market total)

Florida International at Jacksonville State
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

Compare 2 more sportsbooks

FanDuelCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Jacksonville State win 39.8%	Jacksonville State (-144) Florida International (+120)	-19.2 percentage points vs Jacksonville State break-even
Spread	Jacksonville State -9.6	Jacksonville State -2.5 (-124) Florida International +2.5 (+102)	+7.1 points home-side edge; favors Jacksonville State
Total	46.7	Over 45.5 (-102) Under 45.5 (-120)	+1.2 points (model − market total)

Florida International at Jacksonville State
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

BetMGMCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Jacksonville State win 39.8%	Jacksonville State (-145) Florida International (+120)	-19.4 percentage points vs Jacksonville State break-even
Spread	Jacksonville State -9.6	Jacksonville State -3 (-105) Florida International +3 (-115)	+6.6 points home-side edge; favors Jacksonville State
Total	46.7	Over 45.5 (-105) Under 45.5 (-112)	+1.2 points (model − market total)

Florida International at Jacksonville State
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

Differences are arithmetic comparisons, not validated betting edges or positive-EV recommendations. Bookmaker prices include margin and may have changed.

Current model picks and edge qualifications →

2026-10-11 · CENTRAL TIME · model-edge-3.0

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No Qualifying Pick Today

CFB and NFL: spread edge ≥3 points or total edge ≥4 points. NHL: puck-line/total edge ≥0.5 goals; moneyline probability ≥52%, ≥2 percentage points above break-even and positive raw EV. Calibration is tracked, not required for these picks.

0 games on today’s research board

No verified games on today’s imported slate. Limited coverage does not establish that no games are scheduled.

Model / market research comparisons

Unvalidated residual estimates are descriptive research, not published bets. Expected value below is arithmetic per unit staked, not a validated profit forecast; pushes return the stake.

Game / selection	Sportsbook	Line / price	Research probability	Break-even	Raw EV	Publication status
No consistent model distribution and verified paired prices on today’s slate.

Report computed 10/11/2026, 3:20:43 PM CDT. All comparisons derive from the same cached forecast and line snapshot. Data freshness → · Methodology →

Projected outcome — research only

Tie is the projected outcome. Spread -9.6; total 46.7. Home win estimate 39.8%.

Uncertainty interval unavailable: insufficient validation.

Market discussion

Separate CFBD snapshot: home-side gap — points; total gap —. These descriptive gaps do not price the SportsGameOdds offers above. Current qualifying selections appear above and in the locked pending record.

Conditions and counterarguments

Weather unavailable or outside forecast horizon. Injuries: no current verified availability report. Travel distance: unavailable. Missing contextual data and a short statistical sample could change this projection.

Statistical comparisons & assumptions

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	18.8	5
points against	12.2	5
off yards per play	5.3	5
off yards per pass	7.8	5
off yards per rush	3.3	5
off third down rate	0.5	5
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	1.8	5
offensive plays	71.0	5
def yards per play allowed	4.0	5
def third down rate allowed	0.3	5
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.4	5

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	27.3	6
points against	22.5	6
off yards per play	6.2	6
off yards per pass	8.4	6
off yards per rush	4.3	6
off third down rate	0.5	6
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	1.5	6
offensive plays	62.7	6
def yards per play allowed	5.2	6
def third down rate allowed	0.4	6
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.0	6

Data provided by CFBD · retrieved 10/8/2026, 8:16:05 PM CT.

Sportsbook game lines

Cached SportsGameOdds snapshots, independent of model projections. Coverage is limited to a budgeted selection. Prices may have changed; these are not live offers or recommendations. Odds board & object budget →

Game / start (CT)	Sportsbook	Market / selection	Line	American odds	Book updated / retrieved (CT)	Freshness
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · Florida International	—	+120	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Florida International	—	+120	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · Florida International	—	+120	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · Jacksonville State	—	-144	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Jacksonville State	—	-142	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · Jacksonville State	—	-145	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	total · over	45.5	-102	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · over	45.5	-105	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	total · over	45.5	-105	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	total · under	45.5	-120	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · under	45.5	-115	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	total · under	45.5	-112	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	spread · Florida International	2.5	+102	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	spread · Florida International	3	-118	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	spread · Florida International	3	-115	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	spread · Jacksonville State	-2.5	-124	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	spread · Jacksonville State	-3	-102	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Florida International at Jacksonville State 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	spread · Jacksonville State	-3	-105	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot