South Ark Daily Picks / Kennesaw State at Missouri State

Kennesaw State at Missouri State

Model projection, matchup context, market snapshot and limitations.

WEEK 7 · 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CT

Kennesaw State at Missouri State

Plaster Sports Complex

SE v3.0 PROJECTION21.2 — 31.8

Separate CFBD line snapshot: Missouri State spread — · total —
Line snapshot Not available CT

Our prediction vs sportsbook odds

Our projected score: Kennesaw State 21.2 · Missouri State 31.8

DraftKingsCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Missouri State win 43.2%	Missouri State (+130) Kennesaw State (-155)	-0.3 percentage points vs Missouri State break-even
Spread	Missouri State -10.6	Missouri State +3 (-110) Kennesaw State -3 (-110)	+13.6 points home-side edge; favors Missouri State
Total	53.0	Over 51.5 (-105) Under 51.5 (-115)	+1.5 points (model − market total)

Kennesaw State at Missouri State
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

Compare 2 more sportsbooks

FanDuelCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Missouri State win 43.2%	Missouri State (+128) Kennesaw State (-154)	-0.6 percentage points vs Missouri State break-even
Spread	Missouri State -10.6	Missouri State +3.5 (-124) Kennesaw State -3.5 (+102)	+14.1 points home-side edge; favors Missouri State
Total	53.0	Over 51.5 (-104) Under 51.5 (-118)	+1.5 points (model − market total)

Kennesaw State at Missouri State
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

BetMGMCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Missouri State win 43.2%	Missouri State (+125) Kennesaw State (-150)	-1.2 percentage points vs Missouri State break-even
Spread	Missouri State -10.6	Missouri State +3 (-110) Kennesaw State -3 (-108)	+13.6 points home-side edge; favors Missouri State
Total	53.0	Over 51.5 (-105) Under 51.5 (-115)	+1.5 points (model − market total)

Kennesaw State at Missouri State
Oldest displayed book update 10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT · retrieved 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT

Differences are arithmetic comparisons, not validated betting edges or positive-EV recommendations. Bookmaker prices include margin and may have changed.

Current model picks and edge qualifications →

2026-10-11 · CENTRAL TIME · model-edge-3.0

Picks of the Day

Daily report →

Open Bet Slip →

No Qualifying Pick Today

CFB and NFL: spread edge ≥3 points or total edge ≥4 points. NHL: puck-line/total edge ≥0.5 goals; moneyline probability ≥52%, ≥2 percentage points above break-even and positive raw EV. Calibration is tracked, not required for these picks.

0 games on today’s research board

No verified games on today’s imported slate. Limited coverage does not establish that no games are scheduled.

Model / market research comparisons

Unvalidated residual estimates are descriptive research, not published bets. Expected value below is arithmetic per unit staked, not a validated profit forecast; pushes return the stake.

Game / selection	Sportsbook	Line / price	Research probability	Break-even	Raw EV	Publication status
No consistent model distribution and verified paired prices on today’s slate.

Report computed 10/11/2026, 3:22:47 PM CDT. All comparisons derive from the same cached forecast and line snapshot. Data freshness → · Methodology →

Projected outcome — research only

Tie is the projected outcome. Spread -10.6; total 53.0. Home win estimate 43.2%.

Uncertainty interval unavailable: insufficient validation.

Market discussion

Separate CFBD snapshot: home-side gap — points; total gap —. These descriptive gaps do not price the SportsGameOdds offers above. Current qualifying selections appear above and in the locked pending record.

Conditions and counterarguments

Weather unavailable or outside forecast horizon. Injuries: no current verified availability report. Travel distance: unavailable. Missing contextual data and a short statistical sample could change this projection.

Statistical comparisons & assumptions

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	22.6	5
points against	23.4	5
off yards per play	5.7	5
off yards per pass	6.6	5
off yards per rush	4.4	5
off third down rate	0.4	5
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	1.2	5
offensive plays	65.6	5
def yards per play allowed	5.6	5
def third down rate allowed	0.4	5
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.4	5

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	21.8	5
points against	32.4	5
off yards per play	5.2	5
off yards per pass	7.2	5
off yards per rush	3.8	5
off third down rate	0.3	5
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	1.2	5
offensive plays	62.4	5
def yards per play allowed	6.1	5
def third down rate allowed	0.5	5
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.2	5

Data provided by CFBD · retrieved 10/8/2026, 8:16:05 PM CT.

Sportsbook game lines

Cached SportsGameOdds snapshots, independent of model projections. Coverage is limited to a budgeted selection. Prices may have changed; these are not live offers or recommendations. Odds board & object budget →

Game / start (CT)	Sportsbook	Market / selection	Line	American odds	Book updated / retrieved (CT)	Freshness
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · Kennesaw State	—	-154	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Kennesaw State	—	-155	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · Kennesaw State	—	-150	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · Missouri State	—	+128	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Missouri State	—	+130	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · Missouri State	—	+125	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	total · over	51.5	-104	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · over	51.5	-105	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	total · over	51.5	-105	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	total · under	51.5	-118	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · under	51.5	-115	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	total · under	51.5	-115	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	spread · Kennesaw State	-3.5	+102	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	spread · Kennesaw State	-3	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	spread · Kennesaw State	-3	-108	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	spread · Missouri State	3.5	-124	10/11/2026, 2:00:23 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	spread · Missouri State	3	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot
Kennesaw State at Missouri State 10/14/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	spread · Missouri State	3	-110	10/11/2026, 2:00:51 PM CDT 10/11/2026, 2:04:45 PM CDT	Cached snapshot