South Ark Daily Picks / Every Published Pick
Every Published Pick
Locked CFB and NFL picks: pending selections and final results.
Tracked record includes both opening-night wins at the owner’s request. Kennesaw retains its original publication time two minutes after scheduled kickoff. Official below means strictly pregame; post-kickoff records remain distinct.
Every published pick
New CFB and NFL picks enter Pending at publication and are graded against their locked line when a confirmed final score arrives. Losses count just like wins. Superseded future picks remain in the private audit archive.
Selections, original lines, publication time and model version are fingerprinted in a separate write-once ledger. Grading changes results only. Moneyline prices and ROI remain unavailable unless actual prices and staking records exist.
| Sport / matchup | Locked selection | Model score / edge | Publication (CT) | Model | Category | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL Missouri State at Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky +1.5 Kickoff 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CT | 22.7–31.0 9.8 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL Sam Houston at Liberty | Liberty -13.5 Kickoff 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CT | 19.0–38.6 6.1 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL South Florida at UTSA | UTSA -6.5 Kickoff 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CT | 21.3–31.9 4.1 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL Wyoming at San José State | San José State -6 Kickoff 10/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM CT | 13.8–34.7 14.9 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL Iowa at Washington | Washington -3 Kickoff 10/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM CT | 19.5–33.5 11.0 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL Iowa State at BYU | Over 46 Kickoff 10/9/2026, 9:15:00 PM CT | 19.6–37.0 10.6 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL Ole Miss at Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt +9.5 Kickoff 10/10/2026, 2:30:00 PM CT | 20.3–32.4 21.6 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL North Carolina at Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh -4 Kickoff 10/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM CT | 12.7–38.0 21.3 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL Old Dominion at App State | App State -9.5 Kickoff 10/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM CT | 11.1–41.2 20.6 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL Central Michigan at Ohio | Ohio -3 Kickoff 10/10/2026, 2:30:00 PM CT | 9.5–32.7 20.2 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL Texas A&M at Missouri | Missouri -3.5 Kickoff 10/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM CT | 16.3–39.1 19.4 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL Arizona at West Virginia | West Virginia +3 Kickoff 10/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM CT | 22.4–37.2 17.8 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL Tennessee at Arkansas | Arkansas +13.5 Kickoff 10/10/2026, 3:15:00 PM CT | 22.6–26.2 17.1 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL Boise State at Fresno State | Fresno State +6.5 Kickoff 10/10/2026, 9:30:00 PM CT | 24.6–34.9 16.8 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL Tulane at Army | Army -3 Kickoff 10/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM CT | 17.5–36.3 15.8 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
| COLLEGE-FOOTBALL Minnesota at Purdue | Purdue +2.5 Kickoff 10/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM CT | 21.4–33.8 14.9 points | 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM | SE v3.0 | official | PENDING · Locked at publication |
Official performance by week and bet type
| Week | W–L–P | Pending | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1–0–0 | 16 | 100.0 |
| Type | W–L–P | Pending | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| under | 1–0–0 | 0 | 100.0 |
| spread | 0–0–0 | 15 | — |
| over | 0–0–0 | 1 | — |
Retrospective chronological validation
Weekly rolling-origin refit; at least 8 hours after scheduled kickoff; Week 4 onward; no betting returns inferred. 116 held-out games; per-team score MAE 11.9, margin MAE 19.6, total MAE 13.4. Winner accuracy 58.6%. Brier score 0.2 on 86 probability estimates.
This is exploratory validation on preserved legacy data, not official betting performance. Historical data availability timestamps are missing; an eight-hour result-availability proxy is used. No weather/injury historical coverage or independently CFBD-reconciled samples yet. No superiority claim or tested betting threshold.
| Probability bin | Sample | Mean predicted | Observed win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–20.0% | 5 | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| 20.0–40.0% | 26 | 33.5% | 50.0% |
| 40.0–60.0% | 24 | 53.1% | 45.8% |
| 60.0–80.0% | 29 | 68.0% | 72.4% |
| 80.0–100.0% | 2 | 87.9% | 100.0% |