South Ark Daily Picks / Sam Houston at Liberty

Sam Houston at Liberty

Model projection, matchup context, market snapshot and limitations.

WEEK 6 · 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CT

Sam Houston at Liberty

Williams Stadium (VA)

SE v3.0 PROJECTION19.0 — 38.6

Separate CFBD line snapshot: Liberty spread -13.5 · total 52.5
Line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CT

Our prediction vs sportsbook odds

Our projected score: Sam Houston 19.0 · Liberty 38.6

DraftKingsCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Liberty win 63.8%	Liberty (-550) Sam Houston (+410)	-20.8 percentage points vs Liberty break-even
Spread	Liberty -19.6	Liberty -13.5 (-110) Sam Houston +13.5 (-110)	+6.1 points home-side edge; favors Liberty
Total	57.7	Over 52.5 (-110) Under 52.5 (-110)	+5.2 points (model − market total)

Sam Houston at Liberty
Oldest displayed book update 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT · retrieved 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT

Compare 2 more sportsbooks

FanDuelCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Liberty win 63.8%	Liberty (-580) Sam Houston (+420)	-21.5 percentage points vs Liberty break-even
Spread	Liberty -19.6	Liberty -13.5 (-110) Sam Houston +13.5 (-110)	+6.1 points home-side edge; favors Liberty
Total	57.7	Over 52.5 (-110) Under 52.5 (-110)	+5.2 points (model − market total)

Sam Houston at Liberty
Oldest displayed book update 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT · retrieved 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT

BetMGMCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Liberty win 63.8%	Liberty (-550) Sam Houston (+425)	-20.8 percentage points vs Liberty break-even
Spread	Liberty -19.6	Liberty -13.5 (-120) Sam Houston +13.5 (-108)	+6.1 points home-side edge; favors Liberty
Total	57.7	Over 52.5 (-125) Under 52.5 (-105)	+5.2 points (model − market total)

Sam Houston at Liberty
Oldest displayed book update 10/8/2026, 7:04:03 AM CDT · retrieved 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT

Differences are arithmetic comparisons, not validated betting edges or positive-EV recommendations. Bookmaker prices include margin and may have changed.

No new official selection: validation and threshold review pending.

2026-10-08 · CENTRAL TIME · validated-betting-2.0

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No Qualifying Pick Today

New selections require positive expected value at a verified recent price and historically validated market calibration. A projected winner or high probability alone does not qualify a bet.

1 games on today’s research board

COLLEGE-FOOTBALL · 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT

Sam Houston at Liberty

Model Prediction: Sam Houston 19.0 · Liberty 38.6

Projected Winner: Liberty

Liberty win 63.8% · projected Liberty spread -19.6 · total 57.7

Why the Model Projects This Outcome

The model projects Liberty ahead by 19.6 with a game total of 57.7. Injuries and lineup changes are unverified. This is a model lean, not a validated betting recommendation.

Research forecast · betting confidence unavailable

Full matchup →

Model / market research comparisons

Unvalidated residual estimates are descriptive research, not published bets. Expected value below is arithmetic per unit staked, not a validated profit forecast; pushes return the stake.

Game / selection	Sportsbook	Line / price	Research probability	Break-even	Raw EV	Publication status
Sam Houston at Liberty moneyline · Sam Houston	BetMGM	— / +425	36.2% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	19.0%	90.1%	Blocked: stale_prediction, market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:03 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty moneyline · Sam Houston	FanDuel	— / +420	36.2% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	19.2%	88.3%	Blocked: stale_prediction, market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty moneyline · Sam Houston	DraftKings	— / +410	36.2% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	19.6%	84.7%	Blocked: stale_prediction, market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty spread · Sam Houston Selected edge -6.1 points	BetMGM	13.5 / -108	67.2% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	51.9%	29.5%	Blocked: stale_prediction, nonpositive_selected_spread_edge, market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:52 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty spread · Sam Houston Selected edge -6.1 points	FanDuel	13.5 / -110	67.2% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	52.4%	28.4%	Blocked: stale_prediction, nonpositive_selected_spread_edge, market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty spread · Sam Houston Selected edge -6.1 points	DraftKings	13.5 / -110	67.2% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	52.4%	28.4%	Blocked: stale_prediction, nonpositive_selected_spread_edge, market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty total · under Selected edge -5.2 points	BetMGM	52.5 / -105	50.0% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	51.2%	-2.4%	Blocked: stale_prediction, nonpositive_total_edge, market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:52 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty total · over Selected edge 5.2 points	FanDuel	52.5 / -110	50.0% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	52.4%	-4.5%	Blocked: stale_prediction, market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty total · over Selected edge 5.2 points	DraftKings	52.5 / -110	50.0% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	52.4%	-4.5%	Blocked: stale_prediction, market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty total · under Selected edge -5.2 points	FanDuel	52.5 / -110	50.0% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	52.4%	-4.5%	Blocked: stale_prediction, nonpositive_total_edge, market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty total · under Selected edge -5.2 points	DraftKings	52.5 / -110	50.0% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	52.4%	-4.5%	Blocked: stale_prediction, nonpositive_total_edge, market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty total · over Selected edge 5.2 points	BetMGM	52.5 / -125	50.0% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	55.6%	-10.0%	Blocked: stale_prediction, market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:52 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty moneyline · Liberty	DraftKings	— / -550	63.8% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	84.6%	-24.6%	Blocked: stale_prediction, market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty moneyline · Liberty	BetMGM	— / -550	63.8% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	84.6%	-24.6%	Blocked: stale_prediction, market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:03 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty moneyline · Liberty	FanDuel	— / -580	63.8% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	85.3%	-25.2%	Blocked: stale_prediction, market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty spread · Liberty Selected edge 6.1 points	FanDuel	-13.5 / -110	32.8% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	52.4%	-37.5%	Blocked: stale_prediction, market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty spread · Liberty Selected edge 6.1 points	DraftKings	-13.5 / -110	32.8% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	52.4%	-37.5%	Blocked: stale_prediction, market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT
Sam Houston at Liberty spread · Liberty Selected edge 6.1 points	BetMGM	-13.5 / -120	32.8% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	54.5%	-39.9%	Blocked: stale_prediction, market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:52 AM CDT

Report computed 10/8/2026, 12:17:15 PM CDT. All comparisons derive from the same cached forecast and line snapshot. Data freshness → · Methodology →

Projected outcome — research only

Liberty is the projected outcome. Spread -19.6; total 57.7. Home win estimate 63.8%.

Empirical 80% home-margin interval: -21.4 to 32.4

Market discussion

Separate CFBD snapshot: home-side gap 6.1 points; total gap 5.2. These descriptive gaps do not price the SportsGameOdds offers above. No qualifying official edge has been validated; pass.

Conditions and counterarguments

NWS forecast 72.0°F, wind 6.0 mph; fetched 10/8/2026, 10:15:57 AM CT. Injuries: no current verified availability report. Travel distance: unavailable. Missing contextual data and a short statistical sample could change this projection.

Statistical comparisons & assumptions

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	27.8	4
points against	24.0	4
off yards per play	5.8	4
off yards per pass	8.4	4
off yards per rush	2.9	4
off third down rate	0.4	4
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	1.3	4
offensive plays	69.0	4
def yards per play allowed	5.0	4
def third down rate allowed	0.3	4
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.8	4

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	30.4	5
points against	17.8	5
off yards per play	6.3	5
off yards per pass	9.3	5
off yards per rush	4.8	5
off third down rate	0.4	5
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	1.0	5
offensive plays	66.0	5
def yards per play allowed	5.1	5
def third down rate allowed	0.3	5
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.6	5

Ridge regression uses rolling offense, defense, conversion efficiency, turnovers, recent margin, pace, rest and site. Missing metrics use declared priors with missingness indicators.

Weather and verified injuries are context only: no tested historical coefficients are available. No numerical adjustment is invented.

Opponent strength is represented by the opponent’s prior statistical profile; CFBD paid adjusted metrics are not requested.

Win probability is an empirical residual estimate, not a guaranteed outcome. Legacy validation data has not been independently reconciled to CFBD.

Data provided by CFBD · retrieved 10/8/2026, 10:15:23 AM CT.

Sportsbook game lines

Cached SportsGameOdds snapshots, independent of model projections. Coverage is limited to a budgeted selection. Prices may have changed; these are not live offers or recommendations. Odds board & object budget →

Game / start (CT)	Sportsbook	Market / selection	Line	American odds	Book updated / retrieved (CT)	Freshness
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · Sam Houston	—	+420	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Sam Houston	—	+410	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · Sam Houston	—	+425	10/8/2026, 7:04:03 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · Liberty	—	-580	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Liberty	—	-550	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · Liberty	—	-550	10/8/2026, 7:04:03 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	total · over	52.5	-110	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · over	52.5	-110	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	total · over	52.5	-125	10/8/2026, 7:04:52 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	total · under	52.5	-110	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · under	52.5	-110	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	total · under	52.5	-105	10/8/2026, 7:04:52 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	spread · Sam Houston	13.5	-110	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	spread · Sam Houston	13.5	-110	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	spread · Sam Houston	13.5	-108	10/8/2026, 7:04:52 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	spread · Liberty	-13.5	-110	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	spread · Liberty	-13.5	-110	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	spread · Liberty	-13.5	-120	10/8/2026, 7:04:52 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · over	6.5	-120	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · under	6.5	-110	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Sam Houston	—	+140	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
Sam Houston at Liberty 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Liberty	—	-180	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot