WIN
New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International Panthers
Under 46.5
Locked record →South Ark Daily Picks / Model Performance & Prediction History
Model Performance & Prediction History
Measured chronological backtests and an immutable forward prediction ledger, kept separate from betting results.
Model Record
Performance & filters →CFB counts official selections plus the owner-retained opening-night pick; the strict pregame record is separate on the ledger. Professional rows count first-published winner forecasts, not betting results. Units and ROI require recorded prices and stakes.
| Sport / record type | W–L–P | Pending | Win % | Units / ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| College Football · tracked | 2–0–0 | 0 | 100.0% | Unavailable |
| NFL · research winners | 0–0–0 | 29 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| NBA · research winners | 0–0–0 | 14 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| NHL · research winners | 0–0–0 | 98 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| MLB · research winners | 0–0–0 | 0 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Recent Results
Research backtests
| Sport | History | Latest final | Test season / games | Score MAE | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 919 | 2026-10-05 | 2026 / 64 | 7.7 | 0.226 | 0.642 |
| NBA | 1326 | 2026-06-13 | 2025 / 1228 | 9.7 | 0.218 | 0.626 |
| NHL | 1449 | 2026-10-07 | 2026 / 55 | 1.5 | 0.240 | 0.673 |
| MLB | 7289 | 2025-09-28 | 2025 / 2425 | 2.5 | 0.246 | 0.686 |
Score MAE is mean absolute error per team; lower is better. Brier and log loss evaluate home-win probability on decisive games. Each test prediction uses only earlier calendar dates; coefficients refit chronologically. Season thresholds are fixed in advance and not optimized on reported results.
Historical ingestion times are unavailable: calendar-date exclusion is a proxy, not evidence of point-in-time injury or roster coverage. The preserved NBA 2013–2015 and MLB 2023–2025 archives are historical studies. Once connected, the NBA model trains separately on API-SPORTS results; archive rows are retained. None establishes profitable betting performance.
Probability calibration
NBA
| Probability bin | Sample | Mean estimate | Observed home wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0%–20.0% | 9 | 17.5% | 44.4% |
| 20.0%–40.0% | 235 | 32.0% | 27.7% |
| 40.0%–60.0% | 504 | 50.3% | 52.6% |
| 60.0%–80.0% | 383 | 68.5% | 71.3% |
| 80.0%–100.0% | 51 | 84.0% | 80.4% |
Forward prediction ledger
0 distinct graded professional games; 14 immutable forecast revisions. Revising a pregame estimate creates a new record rather than changing the original.
| Published | Sport / game | Original score | Team win probability | Result | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/8/2026, 12:13:43 PM CDT | NBA Sacramento Kings at LA Clippers | 96.6–106.2 | LA Clippers 74.8% | Pending | SADP-NBA-context-ridge-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 12:13:43 PM CDT | NBA Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers | 94.3–99.3 | Portland Trail Blazers 64.4% | Pending | SADP-NBA-context-ridge-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 12:13:43 PM CDT | NBA Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets | 93.8–108.4 | Houston Rockets 82.0% | Pending | SADP-NBA-context-ridge-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 12:13:43 PM CDT | NBA Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans | 108.5–104.8 | New Orleans Pelicans 42.3% | Pending | SADP-NBA-context-ridge-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 12:13:43 PM CDT | NBA Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies | 114.0–112.0 | Memphis Grizzlies 46.6% | Pending | SADP-NBA-context-ridge-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 12:13:43 PM CDT | NBA Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors | 98.5–111.2 | Toronto Raptors 79.8% | Pending | SADP-NBA-context-ridge-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 12:13:43 PM CDT | NBA Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets | 102.3–93.1 | Brooklyn Nets 28.3% | Pending | SADP-NBA-context-ridge-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 12:13:43 PM CDT | NBA Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards | 107.9–105.4 | Washington Wizards 45.4% | Pending | SADP-NBA-context-ridge-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 12:13:43 PM CDT | NBA Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic | 91.1–99.2 | Orlando Magic 72.2% | Pending | SADP-NBA-context-ridge-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 12:13:43 PM CDT | NBA Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers | 91.6–99.0 | Los Angeles Lakers 71.0% | Pending | SADP-NBA-context-ridge-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 12:13:43 PM CDT | NBA Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat | 105.0–106.1 | Miami Heat 55.2% | Pending | SADP-NBA-context-ridge-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 12:13:43 PM CDT | NBA Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs | 92.8–95.2 | San Antonio Spurs 58.3% | Pending | SADP-NBA-context-ridge-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 12:13:43 PM CDT | NBA Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks | 86.3–97.9 | New York Knicks 77.9% | Pending | SADP-NBA-context-ridge-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 12:13:43 PM CDT | NBA Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons | 91.1–91.6 | Detroit Pistons 53.7% | Pending | SADP-NBA-context-ridge-2.0 |
Betting record, win percentage, ROI, units and closing-line value: unavailable until real priced picks are published and settled. No artificial betting record is inferred from score projections.
Preserved CFB original-line pick record and validation →