Today’s best qualified bets, ranked by the current production model.
CFB + NFL · THE OFFICIAL CARD
Largest model gaps. A focused card.
Up to 3 picks on weekdays and Sunday; up to 10 on Saturday. Ranked by the absolute difference between the model and the sportsbook spread or total, in points. One selection per game. Only the published card counts against the record.
Missouri State at Western Kentucky 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT
MODEL PROJECTION22.7 — 31.0
Missouri State 22.7 · Western Kentucky 31.0
9.8-point model gap · Selected team margin 8.3 vs spread 1.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 9.8 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
DraftKings · Odds -120. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/8/2026, 12:43:06 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 38.8%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
6.1-point model gap · Selected team margin 19.6 vs spread -13.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 6.1 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
FanDuel · Odds -110. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/8/2026, 12:43:19 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 32.8%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
4.1-point model gap · Selected team margin 10.6 vs spread -6.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 4.1 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
FanDuel · Odds -118. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 29.3%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
Wyoming at San José State 10/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM CDT
MODEL PROJECTION13.8 — 34.7
Wyoming 13.8 · San José State 34.7
14.9-point model gap · Selected team margin 20.9 vs spread -6
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 14.9 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
Bovada · Odds unavailable. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 53.4%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
11.0-point model gap · Selected team margin 14.0 vs spread -3
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 11.0 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
Bovada · Odds unavailable. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 42.2%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
21.6-point model gap · Selected team margin 12.1 vs spread 9.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 21.6 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
Bovada · Odds unavailable. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 67.2%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
North Carolina at Pittsburgh 10/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT
MODEL PROJECTION12.7 — 38.0
North Carolina 12.7 · Pittsburgh 38.0
21.3-point model gap · Selected team margin 25.3 vs spread -4
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 21.3 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
Bovada · Odds unavailable. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 64.7%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
Old Dominion at App State 10/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM CDT
MODEL PROJECTION11.1 — 41.2
Old Dominion 11.1 · App State 41.2
20.6-point model gap · Selected team margin 30.1 vs spread -9.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 20.6 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
Bovada · Odds unavailable. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 64.7%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
Central Michigan at Ohio 10/10/2026, 2:30:00 PM CDT
MODEL PROJECTION9.5 — 32.7
Central Michigan 9.5 · Ohio 32.7
20.2-point model gap · Selected team margin 23.2 vs spread -3
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 20.2 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
Bovada · Odds unavailable. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 63.8%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
19.4-point model gap · Selected team margin 22.9 vs spread -3.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 19.4 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
Bovada · Odds unavailable. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 63.8%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
Arizona at West Virginia 10/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM CDT
MODEL PROJECTION22.4 — 37.2
Arizona 22.4 · West Virginia 37.2
17.8-point model gap · Selected team margin 14.8 vs spread 3
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 17.8 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
Bovada · Odds unavailable. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 62.9%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
17.1-point model gap · Selected team margin 3.6 vs spread 13.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 17.1 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
Bovada · Odds unavailable. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 62.1%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
Boise State at Fresno State 10/10/2026, 9:30:00 PM CDT
MODEL PROJECTION24.6 — 34.9
Boise State 24.6 · Fresno State 34.9
16.8-point model gap · Selected team margin 10.3 vs spread 6.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 16.8 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
Bovada · Odds unavailable. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 61.2%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
15.8-point model gap · Selected team margin 18.8 vs spread -3
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 15.8 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
Bovada · Odds unavailable. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 54.3%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
14.9-point model gap · Selected team margin 12.4 vs spread 2.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 14.9 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
Bovada · Odds unavailable. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 54.3%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
No eligible selections with usable current market lines. No picks are forced.
Evaluated 10/8/2026, 1:55:11 PM CDT. Original model, selection and market line remain locked in the pick record once play begins.
Data coverage and publication audit
All supported football games are evaluated before the top card is selected. The threshold remains 3 points for spreads and 4 points for totals. Unpublished research does not affect the record.
Thursday, Oct 8: college-football 4/4 available forecasts · nfl 1/1 available forecasts
Friday, Oct 9: college-football 5/5 available forecasts · nfl 0/0 available forecasts
Saturday, Oct 10: college-football 46/46 available forecasts · nfl 0/0 available forecasts
Sunday, Oct 11: college-football 0/0 available forecasts · nfl 13/13 available forecasts